publications

2023

2023

1. A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout

   Minali Aggarwal, Jennifer Allen, Alexander Coppock, and 7 more authors

   Nature Human Behaviour, 2023
2. COVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort study

   Nursena Aksunger, Corey Vernot, Rebecca Littman, and 8 more authors

   PLoS Medicine, 2023
3. Who Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in Kenya

   Lisa Garbe, Nina McMurry, Alexandra Scacco, and 1 more author

   2023
4. Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda

   Lisa Garbe

   Journal of Peace Research, 2023
5. The political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)

   Tina Freyburg, Lisa Garbe, and Véronique Wavre

   The Review of International Organizations, 2023
6. How African countries respond to fake news and hate speech

   Lisa Garbe, Lisa-Marie Selvik, and Pauline Lemaire

   Information, Communication & Society, 2023
7. Softening the corrective effect of populism: populist parties’ impact on political interest

   Miroslav Nemčok, Constantin Manuel Bosancianu, Olga Leshchenko, and 1 more author

   West European Politics, 2023
8. PA

   Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data

   Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, Ferdinand Geissler, and 2 more authors

   Political Analysis, 2023

   Bib HTML PDF Code

   @article{hartmann2023trading,
     title = {Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data},
     author = {Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Kl{\"u}ver, Heike and Giesecke, Johannes},
     journal = {Political Analysis},
     pages = {1--9},
     year = {2023},
     keywords = {health, experimental, methods},
     pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/},
   }

9. CUP

   Integrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method Research

   Macartan Humphreys, and Alan M Jacobs

   2023

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   Integrated Inferences develops a framework for using causal models and Bayesian updating for qualitative and mixed-methods research. By making, updating, and querying causal models, researchers are able to integrate information from different data sources while connecting theory and empirics in a far more systematic and transparent manner than standard qualitative and quantitative approaches allow. This book provides an introduction to fundamental principles of causal inference and Bayesian updating and shows how these tools can be used to implement and justify inferences using within-case (process tracing) evidence, correlational patterns across many cases, or a mix of the two. The authors also demonstrate how causal models can guide research design, informing choices about which cases, observations, and mixes of methods will be most useful for addressing any given question.

   @book{humphreysjacobs2023,
     title = {Integrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method Research},
     author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Jacobs, Alan M},
     year = {2023},
     url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/integrated-inferences/45B07964AD4718A74CDE3E35A31F26FA},
     publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
     keywords = {methods}
   }

10. PUP

    Research Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign

    Graeme Blair, Alexander Coppock, and Macartan Humphreys

    2023

    Abs Bib HTML Code

    Assessing the properties of research designs before implementing them can be tricky for even the most seasoned researchers. This book provides a powerful framework—Model, Inquiry, Data Strategy, and Answer Strategy, or MIDA—for describing any empirical research design in the social sciences. MIDA enables you to characterize the key analytic features of observational and experimental designs, qualitative and quantitative designs, and descriptive and causal designs. An accompanying algorithm lets you declare designs in the MIDA framework, diagnose properties such as bias and precision, and redesign features like sampling, assignment, measurement, and estimation procedures. Research Design in the Social Sciences is an essential tool kit for the entire life of a research project, from planning and realization of design to the integration of your results into the scientific literature.

    @book{blaircoppockhumphreys2023,
      title = {Research Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign},
      author = {Blair, Graeme and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan},
      year = {2023},
      url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691199573/research-design-in-the-social-sciences},
      publisher = {Princeton University Press},
      keywords = {methods},
    }

11. WP

    Political salience and regime resilience

    Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Steffen Huck, and Macartan Humphreys

    2023

    Abs Bib HTML PDF Code

    We study a version of a canonical model of attacks against political regimes where agents have an expressive utility for taking political stances that is scaled by the salience of political decision-making. Increases in political salience can have divergent effects on regime stability depending on costs of being on the losing side. When regimes have weak sanctioning mechanisms, middling levels of salience can pose the greatest threat, as regime supporters are insufficiently motivated to act on their preferences and regime opponents are sufficiently motivated to stop conforming. Our results speak to the phenomenon of charged debates about democracy by identifying conditions under which heightened interest in political decision-making can pose a threat to democracy in and of itself.

    @unpublished{SchweighoferKodritsch2022,
      title = {Political salience and regime resilience},
      author = {Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Sebastian and Huck, Steffen and Humphreys, Macartan},
      year = {2023},
      keywords = {democracy, theory},
    }

2022

2022

1. From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines

   Nina McMurry

   American Political Science Review, 2022
2. SMR

   Bounding causes of effects with mediators

   Philip Dawid, Macartan Humphreys, and Monica Musio

   Sociological Methods & Research, 2022

   Abs HTML PDF Code

   Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. We are interested in assessing whether an outcome in some case is due to the exposure. This ’probability of causation’ is of interest in comparative historical analysis where scholars use process tracing approaches to learn about causes of outcomes for single units by observing events along a causal path. The probability of causation is typically not identified, but bounds can be placed on it. Here, we provide a full characterization of the bounds that can be achieved in the ideal case that X and Y are connected by a causal chain of complete mediators, and we know the probabilistic structure of the full chain. Our results are largely negative. We show that, even in these very favorable conditions, the gains from positive evidence on mediators is modest.

3. PLOS

   Public support for global vaccine sharing in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Germany

   Ferdinand Geissler, Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, and 2 more authors

   PLOS ONE, 2022

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   By September 2021 an estimated 32% of the global population was fully vaccinated for COVID-19 but the global distribution of vaccines was extremely unequal, with 72% or more vaccinated in the ten countries with the highest vaccination rates and less than 2% in the ten countries with the lowest vaccination rates. Given that governments need to secure public support for investments in global vaccine sharing, it is important to understand the levels and drivers of public support for international vaccine solidarity. Using a factorial experiment administered to more than 10,000 online survey respondents in Germany in 2021, we demonstrate that the majority of German citizens are against global inequalities in vaccine distribution. Respondents are supportive of substantive funding amounts, on the order of the most generous contributions provided to date, though still below amounts that are likely needed for a successful global campaign. Public preferences appear largely to be driven by intrinsic concern for the welfare of global populations though are in part explained by material considerations—particularly risks of continued health threats from a failure to vaccinate globally. Strategic considerations are of more limited importance in shaping public opinion; in particular we see no evidence for free riding on contributions by other states. Finally, drawing on an additional survey experiment, we show that there is scope to use information campaigns highlighting international health externalities to augment public support for global campaigns.

   @article{geissler2022public,
     title = {Public support for global vaccine sharing in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Germany},
     author = {Geissler, Ferdinand and Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Kl{\"u}ver, Heike and Giesecke, Johannes},
     journal = {PLOS ONE},
     volume = {17},
     number = {12},
     pages = {e0278337},
     year = {2022},
     publisher = {Public Library of Science},
     pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/},
     keywords = {development, health, experimental}
   }

4. WD

   Political violence and endogenous growth

   Macartan Humphreys

   World Development, 2022

   Abs Bib HTML PDF Code

   I provide an illustration of a dynamic version of Robert Bates’ conjecture that technologies of coercion can be critical to generate prosperity. The model provides support for the conjecture under specified conditions, generates implications for growth paths, including transitions away from coercive strategies, and has implications for the evolution of inequality.

   @article{humphreys2022political,
     title = {Political violence and endogenous growth},
     author = {Humphreys, Macartan},
     journal = {World Development},
     volume = {159},
     pages = {105993},
     year = {2022},
     publisher = {Elsevier},
     keywords = {theory, violence, development},
   }

2021

2021

1. Elections and selfishness

   Kjetil Bjorvatn, Simon Galle, Lars Ivar Oppedal Berge, and 4 more authors

   Electoral Studies, 2021
2. When Do Strong Parties “Throw the Bums Out”? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate Nominations

   Evan Lieberman, Philip Martin, and Nina McMurry

   Studies in Comparative International Development, 2021
3. Building robust and ethical vaccination verification systems

   Baobao Zhang, Laurin Weissinger, Johannes Himmelreich, and 3 more authors

   Brookings TechStream, 2021
4. NatMed

   COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

   Julio S. Solı́s Arce, Shana S. Warren, Niccolò F. Meriggi, and 71 more authors

   Nature Medicine, 2021

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   Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs.

   @article{solis2021covid,
     title = {COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries},
     author = {Sol{\'\i}s Arce, Julio S. and Warren, Shana S. and Meriggi, Niccolò F. and Scacco, Alexandra and McMurry, Nina and Voors, Maarten and Syunyaev, Georgiy and Malik, Amyn Abdul and Aboutajdine, Samya and Adeojo, Opeyemi and Anigo, Deborah and Armand, Alex and Asad, Saher and Atyera, Martin and Augsburg, Britta and Awasthi, Manisha and Ayesiga, Gloria Eden and Bancalari, Antonella and Nyqvist, Martina Björkman and Borisova, Ekaterina and Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and García, Magarita Rosa Cabra and Cheema, Ali and Collins, Elliott and Cuccaro, Filippo and Farooqi, Ahsan Zia and Fatima, Tatheer and Fracchia, Mattia and Soria, Mery Len Galindo and Guariso, Andrea and Hasanain, Ali and Jaramillo, Sofía and Kallon, Sellu and Kamwesigye, Anthony and Kharel, Arjun and Kreps, Sarah and Levine, Madison and Littman, Rebecca and Malik, Mohammad and Manirabaruta, Gisele and Mfura, Jean Léodomir Habarimana and Momoh, Fatoma and Mucauque, Alberto and Mussa, Imamo and Nsabimana, Jean Aime and Obara, Isaac and Otálora, María Juliana and Ouédraogo, Béchir Wendemi and Pare, Touba Bakary and Platas, Melina R. and Polanco, Laura and Qureshi, Javaeria Ashraf and Raheem, Mariam and Ramakrishna, Vasudha and Rendrá, Ismail and Shah, Taimur and Shaked, Sarene Eyla and Shapiro, Jacob N. and Svensson, Jakob and Tariq, Ahsan and Tchibozo, Achille Mignondo and Tiwana, Hamid Ali and Trivedi, Bhartendu and Vernot, Corey and Vicente, Pedro C. and Weissinger, Laurin B. and Zafar, Basit and Zhang, Baobao and Karlan, Dean and Callen, Michael and Teachout, Matthieu and Humphreys, Macartan and Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq and Omer, Saad B.},
     journal = {Nature Medicine},
     volume = {27},
     number = {8},
     pages = {1385--1394},
     year = {2021},
     publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01454-y},
     url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01454-y},
     replication = {https://github.com/wzb-ipi/covid_vaccines_nmed},
     media = {https://nature.altmetric.com/details/109629548},
     status = {published},
     keywords = {health, development}
   }

5. PNAS

   Incentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptake

   Heike Klüver, Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, and 2 more authors

   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021

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   Recent evidence suggests that vaccination hesitancy is too high in many countries to sustainably contain COVID-19. Using a factorial survey experiment administered to 20,500 online respondents in Germany, we assess the effectiveness of three strategies to increase vaccine uptake, namely, providing freedoms, financial remuneration, and vaccination at local doctors. Our results suggest that all three strategies can increase vaccination uptake on the order of two to three percentage points (PP) overall and five PP among the undecided. The combined effects could be as high as 13 PP for this group. The returns from different strategies vary across age groups, however, with older cohorts more responsive to local access and younger cohorts most responsive to enhanced freedoms for vaccinated citizens.

   @article{kluver2021incentives,
     title = {Incentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptake},
     author = {Kl{\"u}ver, Heike and Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Giesecke, Johannes},
     journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
     volume = {118},
     number = {36},
     pages = {e2109543118},
     year = {2021},
     publisher = {National Acad Sciences},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109543118},
     keywords = {experimental, health},
     pap = {https://osf.io/h8rkb/},
     replication = {https://wzb-ipi.github.io/covid_hesitancy_2021/}
   }

6. SciAdv

   Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries

   Dennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Shana S. Warren, and 23 more authors

   Science advances, 2021

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   Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.

   @article{egger2021falling,
     title = {Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries},
     author = {Egger, Dennis and Miguel, Edward and Warren, Shana S. and Shenoy, Ashish and Collins, Elliott and Karlan, Dean and Parkerson, Doug and Mobarak, A. Mushfiq and Fink, Günther and Udry, Christopher and Walker, Michael and Haushofer, Johannes and Larreboure, Magdalena and Athey, Susan and Lopez-Pena, Paula and Benhachmi, Salim and Humphreys, Macartan and Lowe, Layna and Meriggi, Niccoló F. and Wabwire, Andrew and Davis, C. Austin and Pape, Utz Johann and Graff, Tilman and Voors, Maarten and Nekesa, Carolyn and Vernot, Corey},
     journal = {Science advances},
     volume = {7},
     number = {6},
     pages = {eabe0997},
     year = {2021},
     publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe0997},
     keywords = {health, development}
   }

2020

2020

1. Does public opinion affect political speech?

   Anselm Hager, and Hanno Hilbig

   American Journal of Political Science, 2020
2. WD

   The aggregation challenge

   Macartan Humphreys, and Alexandra Scacco

   World Development, 2020

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   Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer have had an enormous impact on scholarship on the political economy of development. But as RCTs have become more central in this field, political scientists have struggled to draw implications from proliferating micro-level studies for longstanding macro­ level problems. We describe these challenges and point to recent innovations to help address them.

   @article{humphreys2020aggregation,
     title = {The aggregation challenge},
     author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Scacco, Alexandra},
     journal = {World Development},
     volume = {127},
     pages = {104806},
     year = {2020},
     publisher = {Elsevier},
     keywords = {methods, development},
     project = {cumulation}
   }

3. JOP

   Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from Uganda

   Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz

   The Journal of Politics, 2020

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   This study integrates three related field experiments to learn about how information communications technology (ICT) innovations can affect who communicates with politicians. We implemented a nationwide experiment in Uganda following a smaller-scale framed field experiment that suggested that ICTs can lead to significant “flattening”: marginalized populations used short message service (SMS) based communication at relatively higher rates compared to existing political communication channels. We find no evidence for these effects in the national experiment. Instead, participation rates are extremely low, and marginalized populations engage at especially low rates. We examine possible reasons for these differences between the more controlled and the scaled-up experiments. The evidence suggests that even when citizens have issues they want to raise, technological fixes to communication deficits can be easily undercut by structural weaknesses in political systems.

   @article{grossman2020information,
     title = {Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from Uganda},
     author = {Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Sacramone-Lutz, Gabriella},
     journal = {The Journal of Politics},
     volume = {82},
     number = {4},
     pages = {1321--1336},
     year = {2020},
     publisher = {The University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/708339},
     keywords = {experimental, development},
     project = {sms}
   }

4. Chapter

   Field experiments, theory, and external validity

   Anna Wilke, and Macartan Humphreys

   SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations, 2020

   Abs Bib HTML PDF Code

   Critics of field experiments lament a turn away from theory and criticize findings for weak external validity. In this chapter, we outline strategies to address these challenges. Highlighting the connection between these twin critiques, we discuss how structural approaches can both help design experiments that maximize the researcher’s ability to learn about theories and enable researchers to judge to what extent the results of one experiment can travel to other settings. We illustrate with a simulated analysis of a bargaining problem to show how theory can help make external claims with respect to both populations and treatments and how combining random assignment and theory can both sharpen learning and alert researchers to over-dependence on theory.

   @article{wilke2020field,
     title = {Field experiments, theory, and external validity},
     author = {Wilke, Anna and Humphreys, Macartan},
     journal = {SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations},
     pages = {1007--35},
     year = {2020},
     publisher = {SAGE London},
     keywords = {theory, methods},
     project = {cumulation}
   }

5. WP

   Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality

   Constantin Manuel Bosancianu, Kim Yi Dionne, Hanno Hilbig, and 4 more authors

   2020

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   What political and social features of states help explain the distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We survey existing works on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political priorities, and (4) social structures to identify national-level political and social characteristics that may help explain variation in the ability of societies to limit Covid-19 mortality. Accounting for a simple set of Lasso-chosen controls, we find that measures of interpersonal and institutional trust are persistently associated with reported Covid-19 deaths in theory-consistent directions. Beyond this, however, patterns are poorly predicted by existing theories, and by arguments in the popular press focused on populist governments, women-led governments, and pandemic preparedness. Expert predictions of mortality patterns associated with state capacity, democracy, and inequality, do no better than chance. Overall, our analysis highlights the challenges our discipline’s theories face in accounting for political responses to unanticipated, society-wide crises.

   @unpublished{bosancianu2020political,
     title = {Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality},
     author = {Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Dionne, Kim Yi and Hilbig, Hanno and Humphreys, Macartan and Sampada, KC and Lieber, Nils and Scacco, Alexandra Lawrence},
     year = {2020},
     publisher = {SocArXiv},
     url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ub3zd/},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ub3zd},
   }

2019

2019

1. The promise and peril of peacekeeping economies

   Bernd Beber, Michael J Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and 1 more author

   International Studies Quarterly, 2019
2. CUP

   Information, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa I

   Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 3 more authors

   2019

   Abs Bib

   Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the first project of the Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantive question and at the same time introduce a new model for cumulative learning that increases coordination among otherwise independent researcher teams. It presents the overall results (using meta-analysis) from six independently conducted but coordinated field experimental studies, the results from each individual study, and the findings from a related evaluation of whether practitioners utilize this information as expected. It also discusses lessons learned from EGAP’s efforts to coordinate field experiments, increase replication of theoretically important studies across contexts, and increase the external validity of field experimental research.

   @book{dunning2019information,
     title = {Information, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa I},
     author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth},
     year = {2019},
     publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
     keywords = {experimental, development},
     project = {cumulation}
   }

3. SciAdv

   Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials

   Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 8 more authors

   Science advances, 2019

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   Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives’ performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the reliability of published research. We implemented a new approach to cumulative learning, coordinating the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommon for multisite trials in the social sciences, we jointly preregistered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, nonpartisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, although exploratory and subgroup analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.

   @article{dunning2019voter,
     title = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials},
     author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth and Adida, Claire L and Arias, Eric and Bicalho, Clara and Boas, Taylor C and others},
     journal = {Science advances},
     volume = {5},
     number = {7},
     pages = {eaaw2612},
     year = {2019},
     publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
     url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612},
     keywords = {experimental, development},
     project = {cumulation}
   }

4. JDE

   Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo

   Macartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez de la Sierra, and Peter Windt

   Journal of Development Economics, 2019

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   We study a randomized Community Driven Reconstruction (CDR) intervention that provided two years of exposure to democratic practices in 1250 villages in eastern Congo. To assess its impact, we examine behavior in a village-level unconditional cash transfer project that distributed $1000 to 457 treatment and control villages. The unconditonal cash transfer provides opportunities to assess whetherpublic funds get captured, what governance practices are employed by villagers and village elites and whether prior exposure to the CDR intervention alters these behaviors. We find no evidence for such effects. The results cast doubt on current attempts to export democratic practices to local communities.

   @article{humphreys2019exporting,
     title = {Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo},
     author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Sierra, Raul Sanchez de la and Van der Windt, Peter},
     journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
     volume = {140},
     pages = {279--301},
     year = {2019},
     publisher = {Elsevier},
     url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818305078},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.03.011},
     keywords = {experimental, development},
   }

5. APSR

   Declaring and diagnosing research designs

   Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, and 1 more author

   American Political Science Review, 2019

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   Researchers need to select high-quality research designs and communicate those designs clearly to readers. Both tasks are difficult. We provide a framework for formally “declaring” the analytically relevant features of a research design in a demonstrably complete manner, with applications to qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods research. The approach to design declaration we describe requires defining a model of the world (M), an inquiry (I), a data strategy (D), and an answer strategy (A). Declaration of these features in code provides sufficient information for researchers and readers to use Monte Carlo techniques to diagnose properties such as power, bias, accuracy of qualitative causal inferences, and other “diagnosands.” Ex ante declarations can be used to improve designs and facilitate preregistration, analysis, and reconciliation of intended and actual analyses. Ex post declarations are useful for describing, sharing, reanalyzing, and critiquing existing designs. We provide open-source software, DeclareDesign, to implement the proposed approach.

   @article{blair2019declaring,
     title = {Declaring and diagnosing research designs},
     author = {Blair, Graeme and Cooper, Jasper and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan},
     journal = {American Political Science Review},
     volume = {113},
     number = {3},
     pages = {838--859},
     year = {2019},
     publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
     url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/declaring-and-diagnosing-research-designs/3CB0C0BB0810AEF8FF65446B3E2E4926},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000194},
     keywords = {methods}
   }

6. CPS

   Citizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?

   Peter Windt, Macartan Humphreys, Lily Medina, and 2 more authors

   Comparative Political Studies, 2019

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   Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual’s support for another. We show that this quantity—a type of elasticity—cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model’s outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government.

   @article{van2019citizen,
     title = {Citizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?},
     author = {Van der Windt, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and Medina, Lily and Timmons, Jeffrey F and Voors, Maarten},
     journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
     volume = {52},
     number = {12},
     pages = {1810--1840},
     year = {2019},
     publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
     url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414018806529?journalCode=cpsa},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018806529},
     keywords = {development}
   }

7. JOP

   Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York City

   Albert H Fang, Andrew M Guess, and Macartan Humphreys

   The Journal of Politics, 2019

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   Racial discrimination persists despite established antidiscrimination laws. A common government strategy to deter discrimination is to publicize the law and communicate potential penalties for violations. We study this strategy by coupling an audit experiment with a randomized intervention involving nearly 700 landlords in New York City and report the first causal estimates of the effect on rental discrimination against blacks and Hispanics of a targeted government messaging campaign. We uncover discrimination levels higher than prior estimates indicate, especially against Hispanics, who are approximately 6 percentage points less likely to receive callbacks and offers than whites. We find suggestive evidence that government messaging can reduce discrimination against Hispanics but not against blacks. The findings confirm discrimination’s persistence and suggest that government messaging can address it in some settings, but more work is needed to understand the conditions under which such appeals are most effective.

   @article{fang2019can,
     title = {Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York City},
     author = {Fang, Albert H and Guess, Andrew M and Humphreys, Macartan},
     journal = {The Journal of Politics},
     volume = {81},
     number = {1},
     pages = {127--141},
     year = {2019},
     publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL},
     url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/700107},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/700107},
     keywords = {experimental, identity politics},
     project = {housing}
   }

2018

2018

1. Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in Nigeria

   Alexandra Scacco, and Shana S Warren

   American Political Science Review, 2018
2. JDE

   Gender quotas in development programming: Null results from a field experiment in Congo

   Peter Windt, Macartan Humphreys, and Raul Sanchez Sierra

   Journal of Development Economics, 2018

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   We examine whether gender quotas introduced by development agencies empower women. As part of a development program, an international organization created community management committees in 661 villages to oversee village level program expenditures. In a randomly selected half of these villages the organization required the committees to have gender parity. Using data on project choice from all participating villages, data on decision making in a later development project (105 villages), and data on citizen attitudes (200 villages), we find no evidence that gender parity requirements empower women. We discuss potential reasons for the null result, including weakness of these social interventions in terms of the engagement they generate, their time horizon, and the weak delegation of responsibilities.

   @article{van2018gender,
     title = {Gender quotas in development programming: Null results from a field experiment in Congo},
     author = {Van der Windt, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez},
     journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
     volume = {133},
     pages = {326--345},
     year = {2018},
     publisher = {Elsevier},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.02.006},
     keywords = {development, experimental, identity politics}
   }

3. OUP

   Why do women co-operate more in women’s groups?

   James D Fearon, Macartan Humphreys, and  others

   Towards Gender Equity in Development, 2018

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   We examine a public goods game in 83 communities in northern Liberia. Women contributed substantially more to a small-scale development project when playing with other women than in mixed-gender groups, where they contributed at about the same levels as men. We try to explain this composition effect using a structural model, survey responses, and a second manipulation. Results suggest women in the all-women condition put more weight on co-operation regardless of value of public good, fear of discovery, or desire to match others’ behaviour. Game players may have stronger motivation to signal public-spiritedness when primed to consider themselves representatives of the women of the community.

   @article{fearon2018women,
     title = {Why do women co-operate more in women’s groups?},
     author = {Fearon, James D and Humphreys, Macartan and others},
     journal = {Towards Gender Equity in Development},
     pages = {217},
     year = {2018},
     publisher = {Oxford Scholarship Online},
     url = {https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/190008}
   }

2017

2017

1. IJE

   Commentary: Biases in the assessment of long-run effects of deworming

   Macartan Humphreys

   International Journal of Epidemiology, 2017

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   "Jullien and colleagues provide a critique of three working papers on the long-run effects of deworming interventions. Despite being unpublished, these three papers have been prominent in the public debate in support of calls for such interventions over the past few years. What can we really infer from them?"

   @article{humphreys2016commentary,
     title = {Commentary: Biases in the assessment of long-run effects of deworming},
     author = {Humphreys, Macartan},
     journal = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
     volume = {45},
     number = {6},
     pages = {2163--2165},
     year = {2017},
     publisher = {Oxford University Press},
     keywords = {health}
   }