Corona politics
Explaining cross national variation
Project overview
2022
- Corona politics2022
We implemented a series of projects to assess the political and economic causes and consequeces of Covid 19. For example, we investigate what political and social features of states help explain the distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths. We find that measures of interpersonal and institutional trust are persistently associated with reported Covid-19 deaths in theory-consistent directions. Beyond this, however, patterns are poorly predicted by existing theories, and by arguments in the popular press focused on populist governments, women-led governments, and pandemic preparedness. Expert predictions of mortality patterns associated with state capacity, democracy, and inequality, do no better than chance. Overall, our analysis highlights the challenges our theories face in accounting for political responses to unanticipated, society-wide crises.
Documents
2023
- SSRNGathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific ModelsGolden Miriam A., Slough Tara, Zhai Haoyu, and 29 more authorsThe Social Science Research Network, 2023
On what basis can we claim a scholarly community understands a phenomenon? Social scientists generally propagate many rival explanations for what they study. How best to discriminate between or aggregate them introduces myriad questions because we lack standard tools that synthesize discrete explanations. In this paper, we assemble and test a set of approaches to the selection and aggregation of predictive statistical models representing different social scientific explanations for a single outcome: original crowd-sourced predictive models of COVID-19 mortality. We evaluate social scientists ability to select or discriminate between these models using an expert forecast elicitation exercise. We provide a framework for aggregating discrete explanations, including using an ensemble algorithm (model stacking). Although the best models outperform benchmark machine learning models, experts are generally unable to identify models predictive accuracy. Findings support the use of algorithmic approaches for the aggregation of social scientific explanations over human judgement or ad-hoc processes.
@article{golden_covid_2023, author = {A., Golden Miriam and Tara, Slough and Haoyu, Zhai and Alexandra, Scacco and Macartan, Humphreys and Eva, Vivalt and Alberto, Diaz-Cayeros and Yi, Dionne Kim and Sampada, KC and Eugenia, Nazrullaeva and M., Aronow P. and Jan-Tino, Brethouwe and Anne, Buijsrogge and John, Burnett and Stephanie, DeMora and Ramón, Enríquez José and Robbert, Fokkink and Chengyu, Fu and Nicholas, Haas and Virginia, Hayes Sarah and Hanno, Hilbig and R., Hobbs William and Dan, Honig and Matthew, Kavanagh and A., Lindelauf Roy H. and Nina, McMurry and L., Merolla Jennifer and Amanda, Robinson and S., Solís Arce Julio and ten Thij Marijn and Felicity, Türkmen Fulya and Stephen, Utych}, title = {Gathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific Models}, journal = {The Social Science Research Network}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Elsevier Inc.}, doi = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4570855}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid, aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {covid} } - PLOSCOVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort studyNursena Aksunger, Corey Vernot, Rebecca Littman, and 8 more authorsPLoS Medicine, 2023
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{scacco_health_2023, author = {Aksunger, Nursena and Vernot, Corey and Littman, Rebecca and Voors, Maarten and Meriggi, Niccolo F and Abajobir, Amanuel and Beber, Bernd and Dai, Katherine and Egger, Dennis and Islam, Asad and {others}, Alexandra Scacco}, title = {COVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort study}, journal = {PLoS Medicine}, year = {2023}, number = {4}, pages = {e1004081}, volume = {20}, publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {media} } - NA 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnoutMinali Aggarwal, Jennifer Allen, Alexander Coppock, and 7 more authorsNature Human Behaviour, 2023
We present the results of a large, US$8.9 million campaign-wide field experiment, conducted among 2 million moderate- and low-information persuadable voters in five battleground states during the 2020 US presidential election. Treatment group participants were exposed to an 8-month-long advertising programme delivered via social media, designed to persuade people to vote against Donald Trump and for Joe Biden. We found no evidence that the programme increased or decreased turnout on average. We found evidence of differential turnout effects by modelled level of Trump support: the campaign increased voting among Biden leaners by 0.4 percentage points (s.e. = 0.2 pp) and decreased voting among Trump leaners by 0.3 percentage points (s.e. = 0.3 pp) for a difference in conditional average treatment effects of 0.7 points (t1,035,571 = -2.09; P = 0.036; [Formula: see text] points; 95% confidence interval = -0.014 to 0). An important but exploratory finding is that the strongest differential effects appear in early voting data, which may inform future work on early campaigning in a post-COVID electoral environment. Our results indicate that differential mobilization effects of even large digital advertising campaigns in presidential elections are likely to be modest.
@article{zhang_2023, author = {Aggarwal, Minali and Allen, Jennifer and Coppock, Alexander and Frankowski, Dan and Messing, Solomon and Zhang, Kelly and Barnes, James and Beasley, Andrew and Hantman, Harry and Zheng, Sylvan}, title = {A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout}, journal = {Nature Human Behaviour}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {332-341}, volume = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {covid} }
2021
- SciAdvFalling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countriesDennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Shana S. Warren, and 23 more authorsScience advances, 2021
Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.
@article{egger_2021, author = {Egger, Dennis and Miguel, Edward and Warren, Shana S. and Shenoy, Ashish and Collins, Elliott and Karlan, Dean and Parkerson, Doug and Mobarak, A. Mushfiq and Fink, G{\"u}nther and Udry, Christopher and Walker, Michael and Haushofer, Johannes and Larreboure, Magdalena and Athey, Susan and Lopez-Pena, Paula and Benhachmi, Salim and Humphreys, Macartan and Lowe, Layna and Meriggi, Niccoló F. and Wabwire, Andrew and Davis, C. Austin and Pape, Utz Johann and Graff, Tilman and Voors, Maarten and Nekesa, Carolyn and Vernot, Corey}, title = {Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries}, journal = {Science advances}, year = {2021}, number = {6}, pages = {eabe0997}, volume = {7}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe0997}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} } - BrookingsBuilding robust and ethical vaccination verification systemsBaobao Zhang, Laurin Weissinger, Johannes Himmelreich, and 3 more authorsBrookings TechStream, 2021
As countries begin to vaccinate their populations against COVID-19, creating systems to verify vaccine records will be vital to reopening businesses, educational institutions, and travel. We consider the challenges of building vaccine record verification (VRV) systems that involve data sharing by health care providers, methods for verifying vaccine records, and regulation of how entities (e.g., workplaces, schools, businesses, and airlines) may request proof of vaccination. In particular, we focus on the opportunities and risks associated with digital vaccine passport apps. We propose three ethical principles to guide the building of VRV systems: 1) aligning systems with vaccine prioritization, 2) upholding fairness and equity, and 3) building trustworthy technology that protects the public’s health data.
@article{mcmurry_brookings_2021, author = {Zhang, Baobao and Weissinger, Laurin and Himmelreich, Johannes and McMurry, Nina and Li, Tiffany C and Kreps, Sarah E}, title = {Building robust and ethical vaccination verification systems}, journal = {Brookings TechStream}, year = {2021}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health}, proj.1 = {covid} } - NatMedCOVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income CountriesJulio S. Solís Arce, Shana S. Warren, Niccolò F. Meriggi, and 71 more authorsNature Medicine, 2021
Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs.
@article{solis_2021, author = {Solís Arce, Julio S. and Warren, Shana S. and Meriggi, Niccolò F. and Scacco, Alexandra and McMurry, Nina and Voors, Maarten and Syunyaev, Georgiy and Malik, Amyn Abdul and Aboutajdine, Samya and Adeojo, Opeyemi and Anigo, Deborah and Armand, Alex and Asad, Saher and Atyera, Martin and Augsburg, Britta and Awasthi, Manisha and Ayesiga, Gloria Eden and Bancalari, Antonella and Nyqvist, Martina Björkman and Borisova, Ekaterina and Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and García, Magarita Rosa Cabra and Cheema, Ali and Collins, Elliott and Cuccaro, Filippo and Farooqi, Ahsan Zia and Fatima, Tatheer and Fracchia, Mattia and Soria, Mery Len Galindo and Guariso, Andrea and Hasanain, Ali and Jaramillo, Sofía and Kallon, Sellu and Kamwesigye, Anthony and Kharel, Arjun and Kreps, Sarah and Levine, Madison and Littman, Rebecca and Malik, Mohammad and Manirabaruta, Gisele and Mfura, Jean Léodomir Habarimana and Momoh, Fatoma and Mucauque, Alberto and Mussa, Imamo and Nsabimana, Jean Aime and Obara, Isaac and Otálora, María Juliana and Ouédraogo, Béchir Wendemi and Pare, Touba Bakary and Platas, Melina R. and Polanco, Laura and Qureshi, Javaeria Ashraf and Raheem, Mariam and Ramakrishna, Vasudha and Rendrá, Ismail and Shah, Taimur and Shaked, Sarene Eyla and Shapiro, Jacob N. and Svensson, Jakob and Tariq, Ahsan and Tchibozo, Achille Mignondo and Tiwana, Hamid Ali and Trivedi, Bhartendu and Vernot, Corey and Vicente, Pedro C. and Weissinger, Laurin B. and Zafar, Basit and Zhang, Baobao and Karlan, Dean and Callen, Michael and Teachout, Matthieu and Humphreys, Macartan and Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq and Omer, Saad B.}, title = {COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries}, journal = {Nature Medicine}, year = {2021}, number = {8}, pages = {1385--1394}, volume = {27}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01454-y}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01454-y}, replication = {https://github.com/wzb-ipi/covid_vaccines_nmed}, media = {https://nature.altmetric.com/details/109629548}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} }
2020
- Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality2020
What political and social features of states help explain the distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We survey existing works on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political priorities, and (4) social structures to identify national-level political and social characteristics that may help explain variation in the ability of societies to limit Covid-19 mortality. Accounting for a simple set of Lasso-chosen controls, we find that measures of interpersonal and institutional trust are persistently associated with reported Covid-19 deaths in theory-consistent directions. Beyond this, however, patterns are poorly predicted by existing theories, and by arguments in the popular press focused on populist governments, women-led governments, and pandemic preparedness. Expert predictions of mortality patterns associated with state capacity, democracy, and inequality, do no better than chance. Overall, our analysis highlights the challenges our discipline’s theories face in accounting for political responses to unanticipated, society-wide crises.
@unpublished{correlates_202, author = {Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Dionne, Kim Yi and Hilbig, Hanno and Humphreys, Macartan and Sampada, KC and Lieber, Nils and Scacco, Alexandra Lawrence}, title = {Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality}, year = {2020}, publisher = {SocArXiv}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ub3zd}, url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ub3zd/}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} } - Nicht im selben Boot: Jedes Land macht seine eigenen Erfahrungen mit Corona - auch Sierra LeoneMacartan Humphreys, and Julio S. Solis ArceWZB-Mitteilungen, 2020
Sierra Leone hat schnell umfangreiche Eindämmungsmaßnahmen gegen die Verbreitung des Coronavirus eingeführt - mit hohen Ökonomischen und sozialen Folgekosten. Die Möglichkeiten der Politik, auf die Wirtschaftskrise zu reagieren, sind sehr begrenzt. Entscheidungen der Regierung greifen oft auf Erfahrungen mit der Ebola-Epidemie zurück, aber es gibt kaum genaue Modelle, die Kosten und Nutzen aggressiver Interventionen durchrechnen würden. Falls Sierra Leone eine zweite Corona- Welle erlebt, müssen Einsichten von Gesundheits- und Sozialwissenschaftlern kombiniert werden.
@article{humphreys_soli_2020, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Arce, Julio S. Solis}, title = {Nicht im selben Boot: Jedes Land macht seine eigenen Erfahrungen mit Corona - auch Sierra Leone}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2020}, number = {2=Nr.169}, pages = {25-28}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {covid} }
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