peer reviewed | Institutions and Political Inequality

2026

CUP
Anatomy of a Riot

Alexandra Scacco

2026

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[under contract] This book manuscript explores why individuals choose to participate in ethnic riots in contemporary Nigeria. The rich existing literature on ethnic conflict focuses heavily on top-down, elite-centered processes, which leaves us with few answers as to why ordinary people would follow their leaders and voluntarily engage in actions that are often fraught with extreme risk. The answer that is given in the book manuscript is that the interaction between poverty and neighborhood-level social networks dramatically increases the likelihood of riot participation. While poverty may increase a person’s willingness to riot, it is centrality in certain types of social networks that transforms potential into actual rioters. To provide evidence for this narrative, an original survey of over 800 rioters and non-rioters in two cities in northern Nigeria, Kaduna and Jos was conducted, both of which have experienced riots in the past. A survey of all 70 neighborhood chiefs in the two cities was also completed; absentee surveys with family members of those randomly sampled individuals who had died or moved away; and 40 in-depth interviews with riot participants and riot organizers, which are used to contextualize and interpret survey findings.
@book{scacco_riot, author = {Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Anatomy of a Riot}, journal = {Cambridge University press}, year = {2026}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press (Under contract)}, status = {peer}, proj = {riots}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {riots} }

2025

DE
Employment Effects of Skills Trainings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review of Recent Randomized Controlled Trials

Bernd Beber, Tabea Lakemann, Regina Schnars, and 1 more author

De Economist, 2025

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This study provides a comprehensive systematic review of recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the employment effects of skills training programs in sub-Saharan Africa. The review focuses on studies conducted between 2019 and 2024, a period marked by a significant increase in the number of RCTs of training interventions in this region, and we thus fill a gap left by earlier reviews that did not reflect this recent surge in experimental studies. We employ the standard SPIDER approach for defining search terms and the PRISMA procedure for search and selection to systematically analyze the impact of these training programs on employment outcomes. The findings reveal a shift towards a more optimistic assessment compared to previous analyses, suggesting that many recent skills training programs do contribute to improving employment-related outcomes.
@article{beber_2025, author = {Beber, Bernd and Lakemann, Tabea and Schnars, Regina and Lay, Jann}, title = {Employment Effects of Skills Trainings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review of Recent Randomized Controlled Trials}, journal = {De Economist}, year = {2025}, pages = {87-120}, volume = {173}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10645-024-09442-6}, status = {peer} }

2024

JDE
Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda

Sarah Frohnweiler, Bernd Beber, and Cara Ebert

Journal of Development Economics, 2024

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Information frictions about benefits of migration can lead to inefficient migration choices. We study the effects of randomly assigned information treatments concerning regional income differentials in Ghana and Uganda to explore participants belief updating and changes in internal migration intentions, destination preferences, and actual migration. Treated participants prefer higher income destinations, while effects on intent plausibly follow subjects initial under- or overestimation of potential gains, with asymmetric updating propensities. Effects persist for 18 months, and discussions with others about migrating increase, but actual migration does not. Knowledge about income affects intentions and destination choices, but barriers to actual relocation are complex.
@article{beber_2024, author = {Frohnweiler, Sarah and Beber, Bernd and Ebert, Cara}, title = {Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2024}, volume = {171}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103311}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387824000609}, status = {peer} }
SMR
Bounding causes of effects with mediators

Philip Dawid, Macartan Humphreys, and Monica Musio

Sociological Methods & Research, 2024

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Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. We are interested in assessing whether an outcome in some case is due to the exposure. This ’probability of causation’ is of interest in comparative historical analysis where scholars use process tracing approaches to learn about causes of outcomes for single units by observing events along a causal path. The probability of causation is typically not identified, but bounds can be placed on it. Here, we provide a full characterization of the bounds that can be achieved in the ideal case that X and Y are connected by a causal chain of complete mediators, and we know the probabilistic structure of the full chain. Our results are largely negative. We show that, even in these very favorable conditions, the gains from positive evidence on mediators is modest.
@article{dawid_204, author = {Dawid, Philip and Humphreys, Macartan and Musio, Monica}, title = {Bounding causes of effects with mediators}, journal = {Sociological Methods \& Research}, year = {2024}, pages = {4.91E+14}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}, status = {peer}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {inference} }
JPR
Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda

Lisa Garbe

Journal of Peace Research, 2024

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Does increasing Internet access and use challenge authoritarian elections? I argue that Internet access provides both opposition supporters and government authorities with new means to shape electoral conduct. Opposition supporters can use the Internet to report on electoral malpractice and mobilize for support. At the same time government authorities can use the Internet to monitor antiregime sentiment prior to the elections and disrupt Internet access to selectively repress regime opponents during the elections. Studying Uganda’s 2016 presidential elections, evidence from election monitoring and survey data suggests that electoral violence is significantly higher in opposition strongholds with greater Internet access prior to the Internet disruption and is targeted specifically at voters. Insights from qualitative interviews with politicians, journalists and activists underline that the disruption of Internet access indeed hindered opposition supporters to effectively challenge electoral malpractice. Overall, the results stress the important role that Internet access can play for opposition actors in authoritarian elections. At the same time, they highlight their susceptibility to manipulation by government authorities.
@article{garbe_jpr_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa}, title = {Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, year = {2024}, pages = {842-857}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage UK: London, England}, status = {peer}, proj = {protests, internet}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {protests, internet} }
CPS
Who Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in Kenya

Lisa Garbe, Nina McMurry, Alexandra Scacco, and 1 more author

Comparative Political Studies, 2024

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Governments across the Global South have begun introducing biometric IDs (eIDs) in an attempt to improve citizen-state legibility. While such initiatives can improve government efficiency, they also raise important questions about citizen privacy, especially for groups with a history of mistrust in the state. If concerns about increased legibility produce differential eID uptake or changes in political behavior, eID initiatives may exacerbate societal inequalities. In a conjoint experiment with 2,073 respondents from four Kenyan regions, we examine how perceptions of and willingness to register for eID under different policy conditions vary across politically dominant, opposition, and ’securitized’ (heavily policed) ethnic groups. Our results indicate broad support for expanded legibility, with respondents across groups preferring policies that link eIDs with a range of government functions. However, we find meaningful group-level variation in support for specific policy features, and suggestive evidence that policies facilitating greater surveillance may discourage opposition political participation.
@article{legible_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa and McMurry, Nina and Scacco, Alexandra and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Who Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in Kenya}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2024}, institution = {WZB Discussion Paper}, status = {peer}, proj = {eid}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {eid} }

2023

Delayed Effects on Migration Intentions in an Information Provision Experiment in Ghana

Sarah Frohnweiler, Bernd Beber, and Cara Ebert

Revue d’économie du développement, 2023

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We report experimental results from Ghana, where treated subjects received information on regional income differentials. We do not see an effect on migration intentions directly after the intervention, but the effect of the treatment unfolds over time. Eighteen months later, subjects assigned to receive income information are on average significantly less likely to express enthusiasm for moving to another region, because individuals that had inaccurately high expectations about incomes elsewhere compared to their current place of residence are now more likely to want to forgo relocation. Contrary to common claims that effects observed in light-touch information experiments are likely to dissipate quickly, we suggest that some types of content in high-stakes domains such as migration can take time to reverberate and be incorporated into individuals’ decision calculus. We also discuss that delayed effects may be uncommonly observed because long-term follow-ups are rare in the absence of short-term effects.
@article{beber_2023, author = {Frohnweiler, Sarah and Beber, Bernd and Ebert, Cara}, title = {Delayed Effects on Migration Intentions in an Information Provision Experiment in Ghana}, journal = {Revue d'économie du développement}, year = {2023}, pages = {37-44}, volume = {31}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3917/edd.373.0037}, status = {peer} }
WEP
Softening the corrective effect of populism: populist parties’ impact on political interest

Miroslav Nemčok, Constantin Manuel Bosancianu, Olga Leshchenko, and 1 more author

West European Politics, 2023

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Populist appeals to a ’pure people’ have been theorised to mobilise previously disengaged citizens. However, this ’corrective consequence’ has found weak support in empirical research. This finding is consistent with studies that suggest that novel campaign appeals and new political offerings have a negligible effect on turnout. As a consequence, this research proposes a distinction between the behavioural and attitudinal effects of populism and introduces a softened revision to the corrective argument: Despite a negligible behavioural impact on individuals’ turnout propensity, the electoral success of populism is nevertheless associated with an attitudinal change: increased political interest. This proposition is supported by two empirical tests. The first detects this dynamic among 232,208 respondents in 136 national election studies from 16 Western countries (1970-2017). The second analysis, which uses an improved causal identification strategy, uncovers an analogous effect in the GESIS Panel (2014-17, Germany). Hence, the emergence of populist parties can stimulate political interest among citizens, even though it does not necessarily lead to increased turnout.
@article{bosancianu_wep_2023, author = {Nem{\v{c}}ok, Miroslav and Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Leshchenko, Olga and Kluknavsk{\'a}, Alena}, title = {Softening the corrective effect of populism: populist parties' impact on political interest}, journal = {West European Politics}, year = {2023}, number = {4}, pages = {760--787}, volume = {46}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, status = {peer} }
PUP
Research Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign

Graeme Blair, Alexander Coppock, and Macartan Humphreys

2023

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Assessing the properties of research designs before implementing them can be tricky for even the most seasoned researchers. This book provides a powerful frameworkâModel, Inquiry, Data Strategy, and Answer Strategy, or MIDAâfor describing any empirical research design in the social sciences. MIDA enables you to characterize the key analytic features of observational and experimental designs, qualitative and quantitative designs, and descriptive and causal designs. An accompanying algorithm lets you declare designs in the MIDA framework, diagnose properties such as bias and precision, and redesign features like sampling, assignment, measurement, and estimation procedures. Research Design in the Social Sciences is an essential tool kit for the entire life of a research project, from planning and realization of design to the integration of your results into the scientific literature.
@book{dd_2023, author = {Blair, Graeme and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Research Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691199573/research-design-in-the-social-sciences}, status = {peer}, proj = {design}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {design} }
RIO
The political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)

Tina Freyburg, Lisa Garbe, and Veronique Wavre

The Review of International Organizations, 2023

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The ’internet’–familiar shorthand for information and communication technologies (ICT)–is built on a physical infrastructure owned by a variety of state and private actors, foreign and domestic, with multiple interests. It has not only driven change on a global scale; its spread also had a profound impact on the social sciences. However, our understanding of how its architecture, and especially its owners, influence its political and economic impact is still in its infancy. This paper presents the Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO) dataset on ownership of internet service providers (ISPs) that allows to recognize the internet as strategically built and used by governments and corporations. Along with a thorough discussion of the conceptualization and operationalization of ownership as a variable, the TOSCO dataset enables comparative large-N analysis of the determinants and effects of varying ownership structures and identities in the transforming context of 49 African countries, 2000â2019. We demonstrate its usefulness with descriptive statistics and regression analyses using replication data from research on the internet’s democratizing and corruption-reducing effects. In allowing for a more realistic account, TOSCO supports scholars and practitioners concerned with the determinants and effects of internet service provision, use and control in Africa and beyond.
@article{garbe_rio_2023, author = {Freyburg, Tina and Garbe, Lisa and Wavre, Veronique}, title = {The political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)}, journal = {The Review of International Organizations}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {573--600}, volume = {18}, publisher = {Springer}, status = {peer}, proj = {networks, internet}, keywords = {elite connections}, proj.1 = {internet} }
ICS
How African countries respond to fake news and hate speech

Lisa Garbe, Lisa-Marie Selvik, and Pauline Lemaire

Information, Communication & Society, 2023

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While scholars have already identified and discussed some of the most urgent problems in content moderation in the Global North, fewer scholars have paid attention to content regulation in the Global South, and notably Africa. In the absence of content moderation by Western tech giants themselves, African countries appear to have shifted their focus towards state-centric approaches to regulating content. We argue that those approaches are largely informed by a regime’s motivation to repress media freedom as well as institutional constraints on the executive. We use structural topic modelling on a corpus of news articles worldwide (Nâ=â7â²787) mentioning hate speech and fake news in 47 African countries to estimate the salience of discussions of legal and technological approaches to content regulation. We find that, in particular, discussions of technological strategies are more salient in regimes with little respect for media freedom and fewer legislative constraints. Overall, our findings suggest that the state is the dominant actor in shaping content regulation across African countries and point to the need for a better understanding of how regime-specific characteristics shape regulatory decisions.
@article{garbe_wep_2023, author = {Garbe, Lisa and Selvik, Lisa-Marie and Lemaire, Pauline}, title = {How African countries respond to fake news and hate speech}, journal = {Information, Communication \& Society}, year = {2023}, number = {1}, pages = {86--103}, volume = {26}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, status = {peer}, proj = {internet}, keywords = {democracy, elite connections} }
SSRN
Gathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific Models

Golden Miriam A., Slough Tara, Zhai Haoyu, and 29 more authors

The Social Science Research Network, 2023

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On what basis can we claim a scholarly community understands a phenomenon? Social scientists generally propagate many rival explanations for what they study. How best to discriminate between or aggregate them introduces myriad questions because we lack standard tools that synthesize discrete explanations. In this paper, we assemble and test a set of approaches to the selection and aggregation of predictive statistical models representing different social scientific explanations for a single outcome: original crowd-sourced predictive models of COVID-19 mortality. We evaluate social scientists ability to select or discriminate between these models using an expert forecast elicitation exercise. We provide a framework for aggregating discrete explanations, including using an ensemble algorithm (model stacking). Although the best models outperform benchmark machine learning models, experts are generally unable to identify models predictive accuracy. Findings support the use of algorithmic approaches for the aggregation of social scientific explanations over human judgement or ad-hoc processes.
@article{golden_covid_2023, author = {A., Golden Miriam and Tara, Slough and Haoyu, Zhai and Alexandra, Scacco and Macartan, Humphreys and Eva, Vivalt and Alberto, Diaz-Cayeros and Yi, Dionne Kim and Sampada, KC and Eugenia, Nazrullaeva and M., Aronow P. and Jan-Tino, Brethouwe and Anne, Buijsrogge and John, Burnett and Stephanie, DeMora and Ramón, Enríquez José and Robbert, Fokkink and Chengyu, Fu and Nicholas, Haas and Virginia, Hayes Sarah and Hanno, Hilbig and R., Hobbs William and Dan, Honig and Matthew, Kavanagh and A., Lindelauf Roy H. and Nina, McMurry and L., Merolla Jennifer and Amanda, Robinson and S., Solís Arce Julio and ten Thij Marijn and Felicity, Türkmen Fulya and Stephen, Utych}, title = {Gathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific Models}, journal = {The Social Science Research Network}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Elsevier Inc.}, doi = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4570855}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid, aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {covid} }
CUP
Integrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method Research

Macartan Humphreys, and Alan M Jacobs

2023

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Integrated Inferences develops a framework for using causal models and Bayesian updating for qualitative and mixed-methods research. By making, updating, and querying causal models, researchers are able to integrate information from different data sources while connecting theory and empirics in a far more systematic and transparent manner than standard qualitative and quantitative approaches allow. This book provides an introduction to fundamental principles of causal inference and Bayesian updating and shows how these tools can be used to implement and justify inferences using within-case (process tracing) evidence, correlational patterns across many cases, or a mix of the two. The authors also demonstrate how causal models can guide research design, informing choices about which cases, observations, and mixes of methods will be most useful for addressing any given question.
@book{humphreys_jacobs_2023, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Jacobs, Alan M}, title = {Integrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method Research}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/integrated-inferences/45B07964AD4718A74CDE3E35A31F26FA}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {aggregation} }
PLOS
COVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort study

Nursena Aksunger, Corey Vernot, Rebecca Littman, and 8 more authors

PLoS Medicine, 2023

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The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{scacco_health_2023, author = {Aksunger, Nursena and Vernot, Corey and Littman, Rebecca and Voors, Maarten and Meriggi, Niccolo F and Abajobir, Amanuel and Beber, Bernd and Dai, Katherine and Egger, Dennis and Islam, Asad and {others}, Alexandra Scacco}, title = {COVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort study}, journal = {PLoS Medicine}, year = {2023}, number = {4}, pages = {e1004081}, volume = {20}, publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {media} }
Chapter
Reducing prejudice through intergroup contact interventions

Rebecca Littman, Alexandra Scacco, and Chagai Weiss

2023

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Intergroup contact interventions have long been heralded as a promising method for reducing prejudice and improving intergroup relations. Contact can occur through face-to-face interactions or indirectly through real or fictional others. Meta-analyses of intergroup contact interventions typically show that contact with outgroup members reduces prejudice. However, well-powered field experiments testing contact interventions find more mixed results: some show large, positive effects of contact on attitudes and/or behaviors, while others find no or mixed effects. These findings raise a number of important questions about the conditions under which different kinds of intergroup contact are likely to improve intergroup relations and what outcomes are most likely to be affected. This chapter will provide a theoretical background of direct and indirect forms of intergroup contact, and will review evidence from meta-analyses on whether these contact interventions reduce prejudice. It will then take a deeper look at a series of intergroup contact studies conducted recently in field settings. Finally, it will outline the big open questions in intergroup contact research and provide tips for conducting contact interventions.
@inbook{scacco_littman_2023, author = {Littman, Rebecca and Scacco, Alexandra and Weiss, Chagai}, title = {Reducing prejudice through intergroup contact interventions}, year = {2023}, pages = {45732}, publisher = {Routledge: Taylor and Francis AS}, booktitle = {Psychological Intergroup Interventions: Evidence-based Approaches to Improve Intergroup Relations}, editor = {Halperin, Eran and Hameiri, Boaz and Littman, Rebecca}, status = {peer}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} }
PA
Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data

Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, Ferdinand Geissler, and 2 more authors

Political Analysis, 2023

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Survey experiments are an important tool to measure policy preferences. Researchers often rely on the random assignment of policy attribute levels to estimate different types of average marginal effects. Yet, researchers are often interested in how respondents trade-off different policy dimensions. We use a conjoint experiment administered to more than 10,000 respondents in Germany, to study preferences over personal freedoms and public welfare during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a pre-registered structural model, we estimate policy ideal points and indifference curves to assess the conditions under which citizens are willing to sacrifice freedoms in the interest of public well-being. We document broad willingness to accept restrictions on rights alongside sharp heterogeneity with respect to vaccination status. The majority of citizens are vaccinated and strongly support limitations on freedoms in response to extreme conditions–especially, when they vaccinated themselves are exempted from these limitations. The unvaccinated minority prefers no restrictions on freedoms regardless of the severity of the pandemic. These policy packages also matter for reported trust in government, in opposite ways for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens.
@article{vaccines_pa_2023, author = {Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Kl{\"u}ver, Heike and Giesecke, Johannes}, title = {Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data}, journal = {Political Analysis}, year = {2023}, number = {2=Nr. 32}, pages = {285-293}, pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {health, experimental, methods}, proj.1 = {vaccines} }
N
A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout

Minali Aggarwal, Jennifer Allen, Alexander Coppock, and 7 more authors

Nature Human Behaviour, 2023

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We present the results of a large, US$8.9 million campaign-wide field experiment, conducted among 2 million moderate- and low-information persuadable voters in five battleground states during the 2020 US presidential election. Treatment group participants were exposed to an 8-month-long advertising programme delivered via social media, designed to persuade people to vote against Donald Trump and for Joe Biden. We found no evidence that the programme increased or decreased turnout on average. We found evidence of differential turnout effects by modelled level of Trump support: the campaign increased voting among Biden leaners by 0.4 percentage points (s.e. = 0.2 pp) and decreased voting among Trump leaners by 0.3 percentage points (s.e. = 0.3 pp) for a difference in conditional average treatment effects of 0.7 points (t1,035,571 = -2.09; P = 0.036; [Formula: see text] points; 95% confidence interval = -0.014 to 0). An important but exploratory finding is that the strongest differential effects appear in early voting data, which may inform future work on early campaigning in a post-COVID electoral environment. Our results indicate that differential mobilization effects of even large digital advertising campaigns in presidential elections are likely to be modest.
@article{zhang_2023, author = {Aggarwal, Minali and Allen, Jennifer and Coppock, Alexander and Frankowski, Dan and Messing, Solomon and Zhang, Kelly and Barnes, James and Beasley, Andrew and Hantman, Harry and Zheng, Sylvan}, title = {A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout}, journal = {Nature Human Behaviour}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {332-341}, volume = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {covid} }

2022

Chapter
Peacekeeping and the geographic diffusion and containment of conflict

Bernd Beber

2022

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Mission-level data strongly suggests that peacekeeping operations offer a path toward conflict reduction. Recently available spatially disaggregated intra-mission data tells a more complex story. Peacekeepers are deployed, within missions, to where violence strikes, and they can prevent bloodshed, but the evidence for the latter is relatively brittle and contingent. This chapter suggests that these findings at different levels of aggregation need not be contradictory, but that they constitute a puzzle that calls for continued efforts to improve and expand access to intra-mission data and a new evaluative approach that investigates a variety of adjustable mission components. I discuss the particular relevance of high-resolution geographic data for analyses of peacekeeping, describe laudable recent data collection efforts in this area, summarize their key findings and limitations, and outline a research frontier as it emerges from these datasets.
@inbook{beber_2022, author = {Beber, Bernd}, title = {Peacekeeping and the geographic diffusion and containment of conflict}, year = {2022}, pages = {196-209}, publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, booktitle = {Handbook on Peacekeeping and International Relations}, editor = {Dorussen, Han}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839109935.00025}, status = {peer} }
WD
Political violence and endogenous growth

Macartan Humphreys

World Development, 2022

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I provide an illustration of a dynamic version of Robert Bates’ conjecture that technologies of coercion can be critical to generate prosperity. The model provides support for the conjecture under specified conditions, generates implications for growth paths, including transitions away from coercive strategies, and has implications for the evolution of inequality.
@article{humphreys_growth_2022, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Political violence and endogenous growth}, journal = {World Development}, year = {2022}, pages = {105993}, volume = {159}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, keywords = {theory, violence, development} }
APSR
From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines

Nina McMurry

American Political Science Review, 2022

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How does the recognition of collective self-governance rights for indigenous communities affect national unity and state consolidation? In recent decades, many states have recognized such rights, devolving de jure control over land and local governance to indigenous institutions. Prominent perspectives in the state-building literature suggest that these policies are likely to threaten state consolidation by strengthening nonstate authorities at the expense of state authority and subnational identities at the expense of a national identity. Yet few studies have tested whether these policies have the consequences their critics claim. I address this gap, leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the granting of communal land titles to indigenous communities in the Philippines. Using difference-in-differences and panel designs, I find that titling increases both indigenous self-identification and compliance with the state. Results from an original survey experiment suggest that recognizing collective self-governance rights increases identification with the nation.
@article{mcmurry_apsr_2022, author = {McMurry, Nina}, title = {From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2022}, number = {2}, pages = {547--563}, volume = {116}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {integration}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {integration} }
PLOS
Public support for global vaccine sharing in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Germany

Ferdinand Geissler, Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, and 1 more author

PLOS ONE, 2022

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By September 2021 an estimated 32% of the global population was fully vaccinated for COVID-19 but the global distribution of vaccines was extremely unequal, with 72% or more vaccinated in the ten countries with the highest vaccination rates and less than 2% in the ten countries with the lowest vaccination rates. Given that governments need to secure public support for investments in global vaccine sharing, it is important to understand the levels and drivers of public support for international vaccine solidarity. Using a factorial experiment administered to more than 10,000 online survey respondents in Germany in 2021, we demonstrate that the majority of German citizens are against global inequalities in vaccine distribution. Respondents are supportive of substantive funding amounts, on the order of the most generous contributions provided to date, though still below amounts that are likely needed for a successful global campaign. Public preferences appear largely to be driven by intrinsic concern for the welfare of global populations though are in part explained by material considerationsâparticularly risks of continued health threats from a failure to vaccinate globally. Strategic considerations are of more limited importance in shaping public opinion; in particular we see no evidence for free riding on contributions by other states. Finally, drawing on an additional survey experiment, we show that there is scope to use information campaigns highlighting international health externalities to augment public support for global campaigns.
@article{vaccines_plos_2022, author = {Geissler, Ferdinand and Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Giesecke, Heike Kl{\"u}verand Johannes}, title = {Public support for global vaccine sharing in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Germany}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, year = {2022}, number = {12}, pages = {e0278337}, volume = {17}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {development, health, experimental}, proj.1 = {vaccines} }

2021

SciAdv
Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries

Dennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Shana S. Warren, and 23 more authors

Science advances, 2021

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Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.
@article{egger_2021, author = {Egger, Dennis and Miguel, Edward and Warren, Shana S. and Shenoy, Ashish and Collins, Elliott and Karlan, Dean and Parkerson, Doug and Mobarak, A. Mushfiq and Fink, G{\"u}nther and Udry, Christopher and Walker, Michael and Haushofer, Johannes and Larreboure, Magdalena and Athey, Susan and Lopez-Pena, Paula and Benhachmi, Salim and Humphreys, Macartan and Lowe, Layna and Meriggi, Niccoló F. and Wabwire, Andrew and Davis, C. Austin and Pape, Utz Johann and Graff, Tilman and Voors, Maarten and Nekesa, Carolyn and Vernot, Corey}, title = {Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries}, journal = {Science advances}, year = {2021}, number = {6}, pages = {eabe0997}, volume = {7}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe0997}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} }
Brookings
Building robust and ethical vaccination verification systems

Baobao Zhang, Laurin Weissinger, Johannes Himmelreich, and 3 more authors

Brookings TechStream, 2021

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As countries begin to vaccinate their populations against COVID-19, creating systems to verify vaccine records will be vital to reopening businesses, educational institutions, and travel. We consider the challenges of building vaccine record verification (VRV) systems that involve data sharing by health care providers, methods for verifying vaccine records, and regulation of how entities (e.g., workplaces, schools, businesses, and airlines) may request proof of vaccination. In particular, we focus on the opportunities and risks associated with digital vaccine passport apps. We propose three ethical principles to guide the building of VRV systems: 1) aligning systems with vaccine prioritization, 2) upholding fairness and equity, and 3) building trustworthy technology that protects the public’s health data.
@article{mcmurry_brookings_2021, author = {Zhang, Baobao and Weissinger, Laurin and Himmelreich, Johannes and McMurry, Nina and Li, Tiffany C and Kreps, Sarah E}, title = {Building robust and ethical vaccination verification systems}, journal = {Brookings TechStream}, year = {2021}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health}, proj.1 = {covid} }
SCID
When Do Strong Parties ’Throw the Bums Out’? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate Nominations

Evan Lieberman, Philip Martin, and Nina McMurry

Studies in Comparative International Development, 2021

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Existing accounts of centralized candidate selection argue that party elites tend to ignore constituent preferences in favor of internal party concerns, leading to accountability deficits. Yet this claim has been largely assumed rather than demonstrated. We provide the first detailed empirical analysis of the relationship between constituent opinion and candidate nominations in the absence of party primaries. We study contemporary South Africa, where conventional wisdom suggests that parties select candidates primarily on the basis of party loyalty. Analyzing more than 8000 local government councillor careers linked with public opinion data, we find that citizen approval predicts incumbent renomination and promotion in minimally competitive constituencies, and that this relationship becomes more pronounced with increasing levels of competition. By contrast, improvements in service provision do not predict career advancement. Under threat of electoral losses, South Africa’s centralized parties strategically remove unpopular incumbents to demonstrate responsiveness to constituent views. However, party-led accountability may not improve development.
@article{mcmurry_scid_2021, author = {Lieberman, Evan and Martin, Philip and McMurry, Nina}, title = {When Do Strong Parties 'Throw the Bums Out'? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate Nominations}, journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, year = {2021}, pages = {316--342}, volume = {56}, publisher = {Springer}, status = {peer}, proj = {account}, keywords = {vertical linkages} }

NatMed

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Julio S. Solís Arce, Shana S. Warren, Niccolò F. Meriggi, and 71 more authors

Nature Medicine, 2021

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Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs.

@article{solis_2021,
  author = {Solís Arce, Julio S. and Warren, Shana S. and Meriggi, Niccolò F. and Scacco, Alexandra and McMurry, Nina and Voors, Maarten and Syunyaev, Georgiy and Malik, Amyn Abdul and Aboutajdine, Samya and Adeojo, Opeyemi and Anigo, Deborah and Armand, Alex and Asad, Saher and Atyera, Martin and Augsburg, Britta and Awasthi, Manisha and Ayesiga, Gloria Eden and Bancalari, Antonella and Nyqvist, Martina Björkman and Borisova, Ekaterina and Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and García, Magarita Rosa Cabra and Cheema, Ali and Collins, Elliott and Cuccaro, Filippo and Farooqi, Ahsan Zia and Fatima, Tatheer and Fracchia, Mattia and Soria, Mery Len Galindo and Guariso, Andrea and Hasanain, Ali and Jaramillo, Sofía and Kallon, Sellu and Kamwesigye, Anthony and Kharel, Arjun and Kreps, Sarah and Levine, Madison and Littman, Rebecca and Malik, Mohammad and Manirabaruta, Gisele and Mfura, Jean Léodomir Habarimana and Momoh, Fatoma and Mucauque, Alberto and Mussa, Imamo and Nsabimana, Jean Aime and Obara, Isaac and Otálora, María Juliana and Ouédraogo, Béchir Wendemi and Pare, Touba Bakary and Platas, Melina R. and Polanco, Laura and Qureshi, Javaeria Ashraf and Raheem, Mariam and Ramakrishna, Vasudha and Rendrá, Ismail and Shah, Taimur and Shaked, Sarene Eyla and Shapiro, Jacob N. and Svensson, Jakob and Tariq, Ahsan and Tchibozo, Achille Mignondo and Tiwana, Hamid Ali and Trivedi, Bhartendu and Vernot, Corey and Vicente, Pedro C. and Weissinger, Laurin B. and Zafar, Basit and Zhang, Baobao and Karlan, Dean and Callen, Michael and Teachout, Matthieu and Humphreys, Macartan and Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq and Omer, Saad B.},
  title = {COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries},
  journal = {Nature Medicine},
  year = {2021},
  number = {8},
  pages = {1385--1394},
  volume = {27},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01454-y},
  url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01454-y},
  replication = {https://github.com/wzb-ipi/covid_vaccines_nmed},
  media = {https://nature.altmetric.com/details/109629548},
  status = {peer},
  proj = {covid},
  keywords = {health, development},
  proj.1 = {covid}
}

PNAS
Incentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptake

Heike Klüverand Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, Ferdinand Geissler, and 1 more author

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021

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Recent evidence suggests that vaccination hesitancy is too high in many countries to sustainably contain COVID-19. Using a factorial survey experiment administered to 20,500 online respondents in Germany, we assess the effectiveness of three strategies to increase vaccine uptake, namely, providing freedoms, financial remuneration, and vaccination at local doctors. Our results suggest that all three strategies can increase vaccination uptake on the order of two to three percentage points (PP) overall and five PP among the undecided. The combined effects could be as high as 13 PP for this group. The returns from different strategies vary across age groups, however, with older cohorts more responsive to local access and younger cohorts most responsive to enhanced freedoms for vaccinated citizens.
@article{vaccines_pnas_2021, author = {Hartmann, Heike Kl{\"u}verand Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Giesecke, Johannes}, title = {Incentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptake}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year = {2021}, number = {36}, pages = {e2109543118}, volume = {118}, publisher = {National Acad Sciences}, pap = {https://osf.io/h8rkb/}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109543118}, replication = {https://wzb-ipi.github.io/covid_hesitancy_2021/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {experimental, health}, proj.1 = {vaccines} }
ES
Elections and selfishness

Kjetil Bjorvatn, Simon Galle, Lars Ivar Oppedal Berge, and 4 more authors

Electoral Studies, 2021

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The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{zhang_2021, author = {Bjorvatn, Kjetil and Galle, Simon and Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal and Miguel, Edward and Posner, Daniel N and Tungodden, Bertil and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Elections and selfishness}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, year = {2021}, pages = {102267}, volume = {69}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, proj = {health}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {health} }

2020

WD
The aggregation challenge

Macartan Humphreys, and Alexandra Scacco

World Development, 2020

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Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer have had an enormous impact on scholarship on the political economy of development. But as RCTs have become more central in this field, political scientists have struggled to draw implications from proliferating micro-level studies for longstanding macro level problems. We describe these challenges and point to recent innovations to help address them.
@article{aggregation_2020, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {The aggregation challenge}, journal = {World Development}, year = {2020}, pages = {104806}, volume = {127}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {methods, development}, proj.1 = {aggregation} }
WP
Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality

Constantin Manuel Bosancianu, Kim Yi Dionne, Hanno Hilbig, and 4 more authors

2020

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What political and social features of states help explain the distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We survey existing works on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political priorities, and (4) social structures to identify national-level political and social characteristics that may help explain variation in the ability of societies to limit Covid-19 mortality. Accounting for a simple set of Lasso-chosen controls, we find that measures of interpersonal and institutional trust are persistently associated with reported Covid-19 deaths in theory-consistent directions. Beyond this, however, patterns are poorly predicted by existing theories, and by arguments in the popular press focused on populist governments, women-led governments, and pandemic preparedness. Expert predictions of mortality patterns associated with state capacity, democracy, and inequality, do no better than chance. Overall, our analysis highlights the challenges our discipline’s theories face in accounting for political responses to unanticipated, society-wide crises.
@unpublished{correlates_202, author = {Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Dionne, Kim Yi and Hilbig, Hanno and Humphreys, Macartan and Sampada, KC and Lieber, Nils and Scacco, Alexandra Lawrence}, title = {Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality}, year = {2020}, publisher = {SocArXiv}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ub3zd}, url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ub3zd/}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} }
JOP
Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from Uganda

Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz

The Journal of Politics, 2020

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This study integrates three related field experiments to learn about how information communications technology (ICT) innovations can affect who communicates with politicians. We implemented a nationwide experiment in Uganda following a smaller-scale framed field experiment that suggested that ICTs can lead to significant ’flattening’: marginalized populations used short message service (SMS) based communication at relatively higher rates compared to existing political communication channels. We find no evidence for these effects in the national experiment. Instead, participation rates are extremely low, and marginalized populations engage at especially low rates. We examine possible reasons for these differences between the more controlled and the scaled-up experiments. The evidence suggests that even when citizens have issues they want to raise, technological fixes to communication deficits can be easily undercut by structural weaknesses in political systems.
@article{grossman_202, author = {Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Sacramone-Lutz, Gabriella}, title = {Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from Uganda}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {1321--1336}, volume = {82}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/708339}, status = {peer}, proj = {sms}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {sms} }
AJPS
Does public opinion affect political speech?

Anselm Hager, and Hanno Hilbig

American Journal of Political Science, 2020

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Does public opinion affect political speech? Of particular interest is whether public opinion affects (i) what topics politicians address and (ii) what positions they endorse. We present evidence from Germany where the government was recently forced to declassify its public opinion research, allowing us to link the content of the research to subsequent speeches. Our causal identification strategy exploits the exogenous timing of the research’s dissemination to cabinet members within a window of a few days. We find that exposure to public opinion research leads politicians to markedly change their speech. First, we show that linguistic similarity between political speech and public opinion research increases significantly after reports are passed on to the cabinet, suggesting that politicians change the topics they address. Second, we demonstrate that exposure to public opinion research alters politicians’ substantive positions in the direction of majority opinion.
@article{hagar_hilbig_2020, author = {Hager, Anselm and Hilbig, Hanno}, title = {Does public opinion affect political speech?}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {921--937}, volume = {64}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, status = {peer}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation} }
Chapter
Field experiments, theory, and external validity

Anna Wilke, and Macartan Humphreys

SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations, 2020

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Critics of field experiments lament a turn away from theory and criticize findings for weak external validity. In this chapter, we outline strategies to address these challenges. Highlighting the connection between these twin critiques, we discuss how structural approaches can both help design experiments that maximize the researcher’s ability to learn about theories and enable researchers to judge to what extent the results of one experiment can travel to other settings. We illustrate with a simulated analysis of a bargaining problem to show how theory can help make external claims with respect to both populations and treatments and how combining random assignment and theory can both sharpen learning and alert researchers to over-dependence on theory.
@article{wilke_2020, author = {Wilke, Anna and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Field experiments, theory, and external validity}, journal = {SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations}, year = {2020}, pages = {1007--35}, publisher = {SAGE London}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {theory, methods}, proj.1 = {aggregation} }

2019

ISQ
The Promise and Peril of Peacekeeping Economies

Bernd Beber, Michael J Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and 1 more author

International Studies Quarterly, 2019

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Contemporary United Nations (UN) peacekeeping deployments commonly pursue both security and economic objectives, but the existing scholarly literature contains hardly any systematic assessments of peacekeeping missions economic effects. We address this issue in two ways. First, we use cross-country data to show that UN peacekeeping missions are large-scale economic interventions. They stimulate demand in depressed economic environments; we find significantly higher economic growth in the presence of peacekeeping deployments than in comparable cases without them. However, we estimate that economic growth rapidly declines when missions end, which suggests that they do not necessarily promote stable economic development. Second, we provide evidence in this vein by turning to microlevel survey data that we collected in Monrovia, where the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) had a large presence from 2003 onward. Our data suggests that UNMIL’s spending created demand for low-skill employment in the service sector, largely without facilitating skill transfers or loosening credit constraints for business owners. This illustrates the problem of peacekeeping economies suggested by our cross-country analysis: peacekeeping missions help create an economic boom fueled by demand in nontraded products, particularly low-skill services, which may not be robust to the mission’s withdrawal.
@article{beber_2019, author = {Beber, Bernd and Gilligan, Michael J and Guardado, Jenny and Karim, Sabrina}, title = {The Promise and Peril of Peacekeeping Economies}, journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, year = {2019}, number = {2}, pages = {364-379}, volume = {63}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz012}, status = {peer} }
ISQ
The promise and peril of peacekeeping economies

Bernd Beber, Michael J Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and 1 more author

International Studies Quarterly, 2019

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Contemporary United Nations (UN) peacekeeping deployments commonly pursue both security and economic objectives, but the existing scholarly literature contains hardly any systematic assessments of peacekeeping missions’ economic effects. We address this issue in two ways. First, we use cross-country data to show that UN peacekeeping missions are large-scale economic interventions. They stimulate demand in depressed economic environments; we find significantly higher economic growth in the presence of peacekeeping deployments than in comparable cases without them. However, we estimate that economic growth rapidly declines when missions end, which suggests that they do not necessarily promote stable economic development. Second, we provide evidence in this vein by turning to microlevel survey data that we collected in Monrovia, where the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) had a large presence from 2003 onward. Our data suggests that UNMIL’s spending created demand for low-skill employment in the service sector, largely without facilitating skill transfers or loosening credit constraints for business owners. This illustrates the problem of ’peacekeeping economies’ suggested by our cross-country analysis: peacekeeping missions help create an economic boom fueled by demand in nontraded products, particularly low-skill services, which may not be robust to the mission’s withdrawal.
@article{beber_gilligan_2019, author = {Beber, Bernd and Gilligan, Michael J and Guardado, Jenny and Karim, Sabrina}, title = {The promise and peril of peacekeeping economies}, journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, year = {2019}, number = {2}, pages = {364--379}, volume = {63}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, status = {peer}, keywords = {political violence} }
APSR
Declaring and diagnosing research designs

Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, and 1 more author

American Political Science Review, 2019

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Researchers need to select high-quality research designs and communicate those designs clearly to readers. Both tasks are difficult. We provide a framework for formally declaring the analytically relevant features of a research design in a demonstrably complete manner, with applications to qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods research. The approach to design declaration we describe requires defining a model of the world (M), an inquiry (I), a data strategy (D), and an answer strategy (A). Declaration of these features in code provides sufficient information for researchers and readers to use Monte Carlo techniques to diagnose properties such as power, bias, accuracy of qualitative causal inferences, and other diagnosands. Ex ante declarations can be used to improve designs and facilitate preregistration, analysis, and reconciliation of intended and actual analyses. Ex post declarations are useful for describing, sharing, reanalyzing, and critiquing existing designs. We provide open-source software, DeclareDesign, to implement the proposed approach.
@article{dd_2019, author = {Blair, Graeme and Cooper, Jasper and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Declaring and diagnosing research designs}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2019}, number = {3}, pages = {838--859}, volume = {113}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000194}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/declaring-and-diagnosing-research-designs/3CB0C0BB0810AEF8FF65446B3E2E4926}, status = {peer}, proj = {design}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {design} }
JOP
Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York City

Albert H Fang, Andrew M Guess, and Macartan Humphreys

The Journal of Politics, 2019

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Racial discrimination persists despite established antidiscrimination laws. A common government strategy to deter discrimination is to publicize the law and communicate potential penalties for violations. We study this strategy by coupling an audit experiment with a randomized intervention involving nearly 700 landlords in New York City and report the first causal estimates of the effect on rental discrimination against blacks and Hispanics of a targeted government messaging campaign. We uncover discrimination levels higher than prior estimates indicate, especially against Hispanics, who are approximately 6 percentage points less likely to receive callbacks and offers than whites. We find suggestive evidence that government messaging can reduce discrimination against Hispanics but not against blacks. The findings confirm discrimination’s persistence and suggest that government messaging can address it in some settings, but more work is needed to understand the conditions under which such appeals are most effective.
@article{fang_2019, author = {Fang, Albert H and Guess, Andrew M and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York City}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2019}, number = {1}, pages = {127--141}, volume = {81}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/700107}, url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/700107}, status = {peer}, proj = {housing}, keywords = {experimental, identity politics, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {housing} }
SciAdv
Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials

Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 8 more authors

Science advances, 2019

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Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives’ performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the reliability of published research. We implemented a new approach to cumulative learning, coordinating the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommon for multisite trials in the social sciences, we jointly preregistered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, nonpartisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, although exploratory and subgroup analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.
@article{metaketa_article_2019, author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth and Adida, Claire L and Arias, Eric and Bicalho, Clara and Boas, Taylor C and {others}}, title = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials}, journal = {Science advances}, year = {2019}, number = {7}, pages = {eaaw2612}, volume = {5}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}, url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}, status = {peer}, proj = {account}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {aggregation} }
CUP
Information, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa I

Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 3 more authors

2019

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Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the first project of the Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantive question and at the same time introduce a new model for cumulative learning that increases coordination among otherwise independent researcher teams. It presents the overall results (using meta-analysis) from six independently conducted but coordinated field experimental studies, the results from each individual study, and the findings from a related evaluation of whether practitioners utilize this information as expected. It also discusses lessons learned from EGAP’s efforts to coordinate field experiments, increase replication of theoretically important studies across contexts, and increase the external validity of field experimental research.
@book{metaketa_book_2019, author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth}, title = {Information, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa I}, year = {2019}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {aggregation} }
JDE
Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo

Macartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez Sierra, and Peter Van der Windt

Journal of Development Economics, 2019

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We study a randomized Community Driven Reconstruction (CDR) intervention that provided two years of exposure to democratic practices in 1250 villages in eastern Congo. To assess its impact, we examine behavior in a village-level unconditional cash transfer project that distributed $1000 to 457 treatment and control villages. The unconditonal cash transfer provides opportunities to assess whetherpublic funds get captured, what governance practices are employed by villagers and village elites and whether prior exposure to the CDR intervention alters these behaviors. We find no evidence for such effects. The results cast doubt on current attempts to export democratic practices to local communities.
@article{tuungane_2019, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez and {Van der Windt}, Peter}, title = {Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2019}, pages = {279--301}, volume = {140}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.03.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818305078}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {experimental, development, horizontal contestation, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} }
CPS
Citizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?

Peter Van der Windt, Macartan Humphreys, Lily Medina, and 2 more authors

Comparative Political Studies, 2019

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Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual’s support for another. We show that this quantity–a type of elasticity–cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model’s outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government.
@article{windt_2019, author = {{Van der Windt}, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and Medina, Lily and Timmons, Jeffrey F and Voors, Maarten}, title = {Citizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2019}, number = {12}, pages = {1810--1840}, volume = {52}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018806529}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414018806529?journalCode=cpsa}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} }

2018

OUP
Why do women co-operate more in women’s groups?

James D Fearon, Macartan Humphreys, and others

Towards Gender Equity in Development, 2018

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We examine a public goods game in 83 communities in northern Liberia. Women contributed substantially more to a small-scale development project when playing with other women than in mixed-gender groups, where they contributed at about the same levels as men. We try to explain this composition effect using a structural model, survey responses, and a second manipulation. Results suggest women in the all-women condition put more weight on co-operation regardless of value of public good, fear of discovery, or desire to match others’ behaviour. Game players may have stronger motivation to signal public-spiritedness when primed to consider themselves representatives of the women of the community.
@article{fearon_humphreys_2018, author = {Fearon, James D and Humphreys, Macartan and {others}}, title = {Why do women co-operate more in women's groups?}, journal = {Towards Gender Equity in Development}, year = {2018}, pages = {217}, publisher = {Oxford Scholarship Online}, url = {https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/190008}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {cdd} }
APSR
Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in Nigeria

Alexandra Scacco, and Shana S Warren

American Political Science Review, 2018

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Can positive social contact between members of antagonistic groups reduce prejudice and discrimination? Despite extensive research on social contact, observational studies are difficult to interpret because prejudiced people may select out of contact with out-group members. We overcome this problem by conducting an education-based, randomized field experiment – the Urban Youth Vocational Training program (UYVT) – with 849 randomly sampled Christian and Muslim young men in riot-prone Kaduna, Nigeria. After sixteen weeks of positive intergroup social contact, we find no changes in prejudice, but heterogeneous-class subjects discriminate significantly less against out-group members than subjects in homogeneous classes. We trace this finding to increased discrimination by homogeneous-class subjects compared to non-UYVT study participants, and we highlight potentially negative consequences of in-group social contact. By focusing on skill-building instead of peace messaging, our intervention minimizes reporting bias and offers strong experimental evidence that intergroup social contact can alter behavior in constructive ways, even amid violent conflict.
@article{scacco_2018, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Warren, Shana S}, title = {Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in Nigeria}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2018}, number = {3}, pages = {654--677}, volume = {112}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} }
JDE
Gender quotas in development programming: Null results from a field experiment in Congo

Peter Van der Windt, Macartan Humphreys, and Raul Sanchez de la Sierra

Journal of Development Economics, 2018

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We examine whether gender quotas introduced by development agencies empower women. As part of a development program, an international organization created community management committees in 661 villages to oversee village level program expenditures. In a randomly selected half of these villages the organization required the committees to have gender parity. Using data on project choice from all participating villages, data on decision making in a later development project (105 villages), and data on citizen attitudes (200 villages), we find no evidence that gender parity requirements empower women. We discuss potential reasons for the null result, including weakness of these social interventions in terms of the engagement they generate, their time horizon, and the weak delegation of responsibilities.
@article{windt_2018, author = {{Van der Windt}, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and {de la Sierra}, Raul Sanchez}, title = {Gender quotas in development programming: Null results from a field experiment in Congo}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2018}, pages = {326--345}, volume = {133}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.02.006}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {development, experimental, identity politics}, proj.1 = {cdd} }

2017

IJE

Commentary: Biases in the assessment of long-run effects of deworming

Macartan Humphreys

International Journal of Epidemiology, 2017

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Jullien and colleagues provide a critique of three working papers on the long-run effects of deworming interventions. Despite being unpublished, these three papers have been prominent in the public debate in support of calls for such interventions over the past few years. What can we really infer from them?

@article{worms_2017,
  author = {Humphreys, Macartan},
  title = {Commentary: Biases in the assessment of long-run effects of deworming},
  journal = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
  year = {2017},
  number = {6},
  pages = {2163--2165},
  volume = {45},
  publisher = {Oxford University Press},
  status = {peer},
  proj = {methods},
  keywords = {health},
  proj.1 = {methods}
}

2014

JOP
Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing Sudan

Alexandra Scacco, Bernd Beber, and Philip Roessler

The Journal of Politics, 2014

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How do episodes of intergroup violence affect political opinions toward outgroup members? Recent studies offer divergent answers. Some suggest violence deepens antagonism and reduces support for compromise, while others contend it encourages moderation and concessions to prevent further conflict. We argue that violence can fuel both hostility toward the outgroup and acceptance of outgroup objectives and provide evidence from a unique survey of 1,380 respondents implemented by the authors in greater Khartoum in Sudan in 2010 and 2011. We find that Northerners who experienced rioting by Southerners in Khartoum in 2005 were more likely to support Southern independence but less likely to support citizenship for Southerners remaining in the North. In combination, these results suggest that political violence hardens negative intergroup attitudes and makes individuals willing to concede separation to avoid living alongside outgroup members.
@article{scacco_sudan_2014, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Bernd and Roessler, Philip}, title = {Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing Sudan}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2014}, number = {3}, pages = {649-665}, volume = {76}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381614000103}, status = {peer}, proj = {sudan}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {sudan} }