by theme
vertical linkages
2024
- Wenn Nord und Süd zusammenarbeiten. Erfahrungen aus einem Projekt in UgandaWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Die Frage, welche Mechanismen politische Teilhalbe ermöglichen, ist eine der Kernfragen der WZB-Abteilung Institutionen und politische Ungleichheit. Freude und Neugier waren daher groÃ, als aus der ugandischen Hauptstadt Kampala die Anfrage an das Team um Macartan Humphreys kam, die Erarbeitung einer Bürgercharta zu unterstützen. Es begann ein aufschlussreiches Zusammenspiel von Wissenschaft und Praxis und ein Prozess der Koproduktion von Nord und Süd.
@article{chirikure_1_2024, author = {Chirikure, Nora and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Wenn Nord und S{\"u}d zusammenarbeiten. Erfahrungen aus einem Projekt in Uganda}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, number = {2=Nr. 184}, pages = {45817}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {kcca}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {kcca} } - Lesbar werden. In Kenia stößt die Einführung digitaler Ausweise nicht nur auf WiderstandWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Ausweise aus Papier sind ein Auslaufmodell. Viele Länder setzen auf elektronische Formen, die Identität von Menschen festzustellen in einer Karte, die biometrische und persönliche Merkmale speichert. Datenschutzbedenken liegen nahe. Doch eine Umfrage in Kenia zeigt, dass viele Menschen dort die Umstellung mit großen Hoffnungen verbinden.
@article{garbe_scacco_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Lesbar werden. In Kenia stößt die Einführung digitaler Ausweise nicht nur auf Widerstand}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, number = {2=Nr. 184}, pages = {27-30}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {eid}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {eid} } - CPSWho Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in KenyaComparative Political Studies, 2024
Governments across the Global South have begun introducing biometric IDs (eIDs) in an attempt to improve citizen-state legibility. While such initiatives can improve government efficiency, they also raise important questions about citizen privacy, especially for groups with a history of mistrust in the state. If concerns about increased legibility produce differential eID uptake or changes in political behavior, eID initiatives may exacerbate societal inequalities. In a conjoint experiment with 2,073 respondents from four Kenyan regions, we examine how perceptions of and willingness to register for eID under different policy conditions vary across politically dominant, opposition, and ’securitized’ (heavily policed) ethnic groups. Our results indicate broad support for expanded legibility, with respondents across groups preferring policies that link eIDs with a range of government functions. However, we find meaningful group-level variation in support for specific policy features, and suggestive evidence that policies facilitating greater surveillance may discourage opposition political participation.
@article{legible_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa and McMurry, Nina and Scacco, Alexandra and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Who Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in Kenya}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2024}, institution = {WZB Discussion Paper}, status = {peer}, proj = {eid}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {eid} } - Ungleichgewicht der MachtWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Forschende aus unterschiedlichen Teilen der Erde haben immer noch sehr ungleiche Startchancen. Das gilt für die Finanzierung ihrer Forschung, akademische Karrierewege, für Visa und Netzwerke. Nora Chirikure und Lennard Naumann fragen, was es braucht, damit Süd-Nord-Forschungspartnerschaften wirklich gleichberechtigt sind und Forschung aus dem Globalen Süden Erfolg hat.
@article{vhirikulre_2_2024, author = {Chirikure, Nora and Naumann, Lennard}, title = {Ungleichgewicht der Macht}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, keywords = {vertical linkages} }
2023
- NA 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnoutMinali Aggarwal, Jennifer Allen, Alexander Coppock, and 7 more authorsNature Human Behaviour, 2023
We present the results of a large, US$8.9 million campaign-wide field experiment, conducted among 2 million moderate- and low-information persuadable voters in five battleground states during the 2020 US presidential election. Treatment group participants were exposed to an 8-month-long advertising programme delivered via social media, designed to persuade people to vote against Donald Trump and for Joe Biden. We found no evidence that the programme increased or decreased turnout on average. We found evidence of differential turnout effects by modelled level of Trump support: the campaign increased voting among Biden leaners by 0.4 percentage points (s.e. = 0.2 pp) and decreased voting among Trump leaners by 0.3 percentage points (s.e. = 0.3 pp) for a difference in conditional average treatment effects of 0.7 points (t1,035,571 = -2.09; P = 0.036; [Formula: see text] points; 95% confidence interval = -0.014 to 0). An important but exploratory finding is that the strongest differential effects appear in early voting data, which may inform future work on early campaigning in a post-COVID electoral environment. Our results indicate that differential mobilization effects of even large digital advertising campaigns in presidential elections are likely to be modest.
@article{zhang_2023, author = {Aggarwal, Minali and Allen, Jennifer and Coppock, Alexander and Frankowski, Dan and Messing, Solomon and Zhang, Kelly and Barnes, James and Beasley, Andrew and Hantman, Harry and Zheng, Sylvan}, title = {A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout}, journal = {Nature Human Behaviour}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {332-341}, volume = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {covid} }
2022
- Das globale Impfversagen: Die Frage des Patentschutzes muss neu diskutiert werdenWZB-Mitteilungen, 2022
Die Ungleichheit beim weltweiten Zugang zu Impfstoffen gegen Covid-19 ist eklatant. Dabei zeigen Studien aus dem WZB: Die Akzeptanz von Impfungen ist in Ländern mit niedrigem Einkommen hoch, und die Deutschen befürworten mehr Impfsolidarität, auch wenn das mit Kosten für Deutschland verbunden wäre. Es ist an der Zeit, dass Deutschland seinen Widerstand gegen die befristete Freigabe der Patente für Corona-Impfstoffe Überdenkt.
@article{humphreys_2022, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Das globale Impfversagen: Die Frage des Patentschutzes muss neu diskutiert werden}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2022}, number = {2=Nr. 175}, pages = {30-33}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, keywords = {vertical linkages} } - From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the PhilippinesAmerican Political Science Review, 2022
How does the recognition of collective self-governance rights for indigenous communities affect national unity and state consolidation? In recent decades, many states have recognized such rights, devolving de jure control over land and local governance to indigenous institutions. Prominent perspectives in the state-building literature suggest that these policies are likely to threaten state consolidation by strengthening nonstate authorities at the expense of state authority and subnational identities at the expense of a national identity. Yet few studies have tested whether these policies have the consequences their critics claim. I address this gap, leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the granting of communal land titles to indigenous communities in the Philippines. Using difference-in-differences and panel designs, I find that titling increases both indigenous self-identification and compliance with the state. Results from an original survey experiment suggest that recognizing collective self-governance rights increases identification with the nation.
@article{mcmurry_apsr_2022, author = {McMurry, Nina}, title = {From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2022}, number = {2}, pages = {547--563}, volume = {116}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {integration}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {integration} }
2021
- SCIDWhen Do Strong Parties ’Throw the Bums Out’? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate NominationsEvan Lieberman, Philip Martin, and Nina McMurryStudies in Comparative International Development, 2021
Existing accounts of centralized candidate selection argue that party elites tend to ignore constituent preferences in favor of internal party concerns, leading to accountability deficits. Yet this claim has been largely assumed rather than demonstrated. We provide the first detailed empirical analysis of the relationship between constituent opinion and candidate nominations in the absence of party primaries. We study contemporary South Africa, where conventional wisdom suggests that parties select candidates primarily on the basis of party loyalty. Analyzing more than 8000 local government councillor careers linked with public opinion data, we find that citizen approval predicts incumbent renomination and promotion in minimally competitive constituencies, and that this relationship becomes more pronounced with increasing levels of competition. By contrast, improvements in service provision do not predict career advancement. Under threat of electoral losses, South Africa’s centralized parties strategically remove unpopular incumbents to demonstrate responsiveness to constituent views. However, party-led accountability may not improve development.
@article{mcmurry_scid_2021, author = {Lieberman, Evan and Martin, Philip and McMurry, Nina}, title = {When Do Strong Parties 'Throw the Bums Out'? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate Nominations}, journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, year = {2021}, pages = {316--342}, volume = {56}, publisher = {Springer}, status = {peer}, proj = {account}, keywords = {vertical linkages} }
2020
- Trotz Risiken und Nebenwirkungen. Die Chancen der Bürgerbeteiligung in der EntwicklungspolitikConstantin Manuel Bosancianu, Macartan Humphreys, and Ana Garcia-HernandezWZB-Mitteilungen, 2020
Bürgerbeteiligungsverfahren bilden die Präferenzen der Bevölkerung mitunter nur unzureichend ab. Dies kann am ungleichen Engagement der Beteiligten in der Entscheidungsfindung liegen oder daran, dass die Verfahrensverantwortlichen den Prozess beeinflussen. Bei einem Projekt in Kampala (Uganda) wurde die Wirksamkeit solcher Verfahren untersucht. Es finden sich zwar Belege für ungleiche Beteiligung und den Einfluss der Eliten auf die Ergebnisse, doch dies führt nicht zu Ungleichheiten in Bezug darauf, wessen Ansichten sich in den Ergebnissen der Beratungen widerspiegeln. Beteiligungsverfahren können unter den richtigen Bedingungen ein wertvolles Instrument zur Kanalisierung von Bürgerinteressen sein.
@article{bosancianu_2020, author = {Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Humphreys, Macartan and Garcia-Hernandez, Ana}, title = {Trotz Risiken und Nebenwirkungen. Die Chancen der Bürgerbeteiligung in der Entwicklungspolitik}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2020}, number = {2=Nr. 169}, pages = {47-40}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {kcca}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {kcca} } - Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from UgandaGuy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and Gabriella Sacramone-LutzThe Journal of Politics, 2020
This study integrates three related field experiments to learn about how information communications technology (ICT) innovations can affect who communicates with politicians. We implemented a nationwide experiment in Uganda following a smaller-scale framed field experiment that suggested that ICTs can lead to significant ’flattening’: marginalized populations used short message service (SMS) based communication at relatively higher rates compared to existing political communication channels. We find no evidence for these effects in the national experiment. Instead, participation rates are extremely low, and marginalized populations engage at especially low rates. We examine possible reasons for these differences between the more controlled and the scaled-up experiments. The evidence suggests that even when citizens have issues they want to raise, technological fixes to communication deficits can be easily undercut by structural weaknesses in political systems.
@article{grossman_202, author = {Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Sacramone-Lutz, Gabriella}, title = {Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from Uganda}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {1321--1336}, volume = {82}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/708339}, status = {peer}, proj = {sms}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {sms} } - Does public opinion affect political speech?Anselm Hager, and Hanno HilbigAmerican Journal of Political Science, 2020
Does public opinion affect political speech? Of particular interest is whether public opinion affects (i) what topics politicians address and (ii) what positions they endorse. We present evidence from Germany where the government was recently forced to declassify its public opinion research, allowing us to link the content of the research to subsequent speeches. Our causal identification strategy exploits the exogenous timing of the research’s dissemination to cabinet members within a window of a few days. We find that exposure to public opinion research leads politicians to markedly change their speech. First, we show that linguistic similarity between political speech and public opinion research increases significantly after reports are passed on to the cabinet, suggesting that politicians change the topics they address. Second, we demonstrate that exposure to public opinion research alters politicians’ substantive positions in the direction of majority opinion.
@article{hagar_hilbig_2020, author = {Hager, Anselm and Hilbig, Hanno}, title = {Does public opinion affect political speech?}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {921--937}, volume = {64}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, status = {peer}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation} }
2019
- SciAdvVoter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trialsThad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 8 more authorsScience advances, 2019
Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives’ performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the reliability of published research. We implemented a new approach to cumulative learning, coordinating the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommon for multisite trials in the social sciences, we jointly preregistered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, nonpartisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, although exploratory and subgroup analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.
@article{metaketa_article_2019, author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth and Adida, Claire L and Arias, Eric and Bicalho, Clara and Boas, Taylor C and {others}}, title = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials}, journal = {Science advances}, year = {2019}, number = {7}, pages = {eaaw2612}, volume = {5}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}, url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}, status = {peer}, proj = {account}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - CUPInformation, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa IThad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 3 more authors2019
Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the first project of the Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantive question and at the same time introduce a new model for cumulative learning that increases coordination among otherwise independent researcher teams. It presents the overall results (using meta-analysis) from six independently conducted but coordinated field experimental studies, the results from each individual study, and the findings from a related evaluation of whether practitioners utilize this information as expected. It also discusses lessons learned from EGAP’s efforts to coordinate field experiments, increase replication of theoretically important studies across contexts, and increase the external validity of field experimental research.
@book{metaketa_book_2019, author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth}, title = {Information, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa I}, year = {2019}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - JDEExporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern CongoMacartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez Sierra, and Peter Van der WindtJournal of Development Economics, 2019
We study a randomized Community Driven Reconstruction (CDR) intervention that provided two years of exposure to democratic practices in 1250 villages in eastern Congo. To assess its impact, we examine behavior in a village-level unconditional cash transfer project that distributed $1000 to 457 treatment and control villages. The unconditonal cash transfer provides opportunities to assess whetherpublic funds get captured, what governance practices are employed by villagers and village elites and whether prior exposure to the CDR intervention alters these behaviors. We find no evidence for such effects. The results cast doubt on current attempts to export democratic practices to local communities.
@article{tuungane_2019, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez and {Van der Windt}, Peter}, title = {Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2019}, pages = {279--301}, volume = {140}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.03.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818305078}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {experimental, development, horizontal contestation, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} } - CPSCitizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?Comparative Political Studies, 2019
Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual’s support for another. We show that this quantity–a type of elasticity–cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model’s outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government.
@article{windt_2019, author = {{Van der Windt}, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and Medina, Lily and Timmons, Jeffrey F and Voors, Maarten}, title = {Citizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2019}, number = {12}, pages = {1810--1840}, volume = {52}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018806529}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414018806529?journalCode=cpsa}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} }
horizontal contestation
2026
- CUPAnatomy of a Riot2026
[under contract] This book manuscript explores why individuals choose to participate in ethnic riots in contemporary Nigeria. The rich existing literature on ethnic conflict focuses heavily on top-down, elite-centered processes, which leaves us with few answers as to why ordinary people would follow their leaders and voluntarily engage in actions that are often fraught with extreme risk. The answer that is given in the book manuscript is that the interaction between poverty and neighborhood-level social networks dramatically increases the likelihood of riot participation. While poverty may increase a person’s willingness to riot, it is centrality in certain types of social networks that transforms potential into actual rioters. To provide evidence for this narrative, an original survey of over 800 rioters and non-rioters in two cities in northern Nigeria, Kaduna and Jos was conducted, both of which have experienced riots in the past. A survey of all 70 neighborhood chiefs in the two cities was also completed; absentee surveys with family members of those randomly sampled individuals who had died or moved away; and 40 in-depth interviews with riot participants and riot organizers, which are used to contextualize and interpret survey findings.
@book{scacco_riot, author = {Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Anatomy of a Riot}, journal = {Cambridge University press}, year = {2026}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press (Under contract)}, status = {peer}, proj = {riots}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {riots} }
2025
- Outgroup AvoidanceChagai M. Weiss, Alexandra Siegel, and Alexandra Scacco2025
Encouraging engagement with outgroup perspectives is a popular strategy to improve intergroup relations. But in deeply divided societies, individuals often actively avoid outgroup members. In a Facebook field experiment, we embedded Palestinian posts in Jewish Israelis Facebook timelines for a period of 14 days. We find no effect on attitudes toward the outgroup and a modest decrease in subsequent consumption of outgroup content, a pattern we attribute to participants avoidance of constructive engagement. To better understand this avoidance, we conducted a set of survey-embedded behavioral tasks. Results suggest that outgroup avoidance online is widespread, associated with outgroup prejudice, explained by feelings of discomfort, anger, mistrust in outgroups, and pessimism, and challenging to overcome. Our findings indicate that avoidance is a barrier to constructive intergroup engagement in naturalistic settings, rendering many interventions that may be effective in controlled environments difficult to implement or scale in practice.
@unpublished{scacco_2025, author = {Weiss, Chagai M. and Siegel, Alexandra and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Outgroup Avoidance}, journal = {forthcoming, The Journal of Politics}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {media}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {covid} } - Intergroup Contact, Empathy Training, and Refugee-Native Integration: Evidence from a Field Experiment in LebanonSalma Mousa, Lennard Naumann, and Alexandra Scacco2025
Can intergroup contact improve relations between refugees and host communities? If so, are there added returns to combining contact and empathy education? Does either approach unlock spillover effects among household members? To answer these questions, we conduct a field experiment that brings together Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals in three localities in Lebanon, where refugees make up a quarter of the population. Working with a Lebanese NGO, we randomly assign Lebanese and Syrian youth participants to an ethnically heterogeneous or homogeneous classroom for a 12-week psycho-social support program. We further randomize whether participants received additional empathy education or a placebo curriculum focused on health and nutrition. We find that contact is more effective at teaching conflict resolution, but reduces the willingness to engage in further contact, as measured by attending an event celebrating the ougroups culture. By contrast, empathy education decreases prejudice without negative effects on behavior. We do not find clear interaction effects of contact and empathy training, nor significant spillover effects among parents. The results point to the different trade-offs associated with both contact and empathy interventions in fragile settings.
@unpublished{scacco_empathy_2025, author = {Mousa, Salma and Naumann, Lennard and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Intergroup Contact, Empathy Training, and Refugee-Native Integration: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Lebanon}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} }
2024
- CPSWho Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in KenyaComparative Political Studies, 2024
Governments across the Global South have begun introducing biometric IDs (eIDs) in an attempt to improve citizen-state legibility. While such initiatives can improve government efficiency, they also raise important questions about citizen privacy, especially for groups with a history of mistrust in the state. If concerns about increased legibility produce differential eID uptake or changes in political behavior, eID initiatives may exacerbate societal inequalities. In a conjoint experiment with 2,073 respondents from four Kenyan regions, we examine how perceptions of and willingness to register for eID under different policy conditions vary across politically dominant, opposition, and ’securitized’ (heavily policed) ethnic groups. Our results indicate broad support for expanded legibility, with respondents across groups preferring policies that link eIDs with a range of government functions. However, we find meaningful group-level variation in support for specific policy features, and suggestive evidence that policies facilitating greater surveillance may discourage opposition political participation.
@article{legible_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa and McMurry, Nina and Scacco, Alexandra and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Who Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in Kenya}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2024}, institution = {WZB Discussion Paper}, status = {peer}, proj = {eid}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {eid} }
2023
- PLOSCOVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort studyNursena Aksunger, Corey Vernot, Rebecca Littman, and 8 more authorsPLoS Medicine, 2023
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{scacco_health_2023, author = {Aksunger, Nursena and Vernot, Corey and Littman, Rebecca and Voors, Maarten and Meriggi, Niccolo F and Abajobir, Amanuel and Beber, Bernd and Dai, Katherine and Egger, Dennis and Islam, Asad and {others}, Alexandra Scacco}, title = {COVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort study}, journal = {PLoS Medicine}, year = {2023}, number = {4}, pages = {e1004081}, volume = {20}, publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {media} } - ChapterReducing prejudice through intergroup contact interventionsRebecca Littman, Alexandra Scacco, and Chagai Weiss2023
Intergroup contact interventions have long been heralded as a promising method for reducing prejudice and improving intergroup relations. Contact can occur through face-to-face interactions or indirectly through real or fictional others. Meta-analyses of intergroup contact interventions typically show that contact with outgroup members reduces prejudice. However, well-powered field experiments testing contact interventions find more mixed results: some show large, positive effects of contact on attitudes and/or behaviors, while others find no or mixed effects. These findings raise a number of important questions about the conditions under which different kinds of intergroup contact are likely to improve intergroup relations and what outcomes are most likely to be affected. This chapter will provide a theoretical background of direct and indirect forms of intergroup contact, and will review evidence from meta-analyses on whether these contact interventions reduce prejudice. It will then take a deeper look at a series of intergroup contact studies conducted recently in field settings. Finally, it will outline the big open questions in intergroup contact research and provide tips for conducting contact interventions.
@inbook{scacco_littman_2023, author = {Littman, Rebecca and Scacco, Alexandra and Weiss, Chagai}, title = {Reducing prejudice through intergroup contact interventions}, year = {2023}, pages = {45732}, publisher = {Routledge: Taylor and Francis AS}, booktitle = {Psychological Intergroup Interventions: Evidence-based Approaches to Improve Intergroup Relations}, editor = {Halperin, Eran and Hameiri, Boaz and Littman, Rebecca}, status = {peer}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} }
2021
- Identity in Partition: Evidence from a Panel Survey in SudanAlexandra Scacco, Nermd Beber, and Philip Roessler2021
How are social identities affected by significant political change, and to what extent do migrants adopt linguistic, religious, regional, or tribal identity markers prevalent in their host communities? We investigate these questions in the context of Sudans partition, which led to the creation of South Sudan in July 2011. Partition entailed both the relocation of a large number of Southerners to South Sudan and a sharp deterioration in the treatment of minorities, including Southerners, remaining in northern Sudan. The paper presents data from a panel survey of 1,380 respondents conductedin pre- and post-partition Sudan and South Sudan in 2010 and 2011, complemented by in-depth qualitative interviews conducted in 2012. This is to our knowledge the only systematic data collected on Sudanese attitudes and self-identification at the time of partition and the first time such a panel has been constructed during a countrys partition. We present statistical evidence to show that subjects self-identifications are surprisingly malleable and responsive to context. This affects both the activation and ranking of preexisting identity components (e.g. whether subjects prioritize their tribal or national identities) and the adoption of entirely new characteristics (e.g. Christians self-identifying as Muslims). We show that some identity markers (such as language) are more malleable than others (such as religion), but overall subjects are willing to adapt and redefine themselves in the pursuit of security and well-being. This is true for both Southerners and other peripheral minorities trying to pass as members of dominant groups in Sudan as well as relocated Southerners trying to settle in South Sudan. Contrary to fears expressed by members of dominant groups, these vulnerable individuals do not refuse to integrate, but actively seek to adopt dominant identity patterns.
@unpublished{scacco_identity_sudan_2021, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Nermd and Roessler, Philip}, title = {Identity in Partition: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Sudan}, year = {2021}, status = {WP}, proj = {sudan}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {sudan} } - Coping with Partition: Wealth, Security, and Migration in Post-Separation SudanAlexandra Scacco, Bernd Beber, and Philip Roessler2021
In January 2011, the people of Southern Sudan voted to secede from Sudan, and the country divided into two states six months later. Given this momentous shift in Sudans political boundaries, this paper asks how Southerners located in northern Sudan decided to structure their lives in the shadow of partition. We ask under what conditions Southerners living in the North at the time of partition were more or less likely to migrate to newly created South Sudan. We find that both the poorest and the wealthiest Southerners are most likely to relocate swiftly, while middle income households depend more heavily on economic opportunities absent in the South and are therefore more likely to resist migration, in spite of the severe security risks associated with remaining in the North. As such, migration decisions in the shadow of Sudans partition reflect a stark trade-off between security and prosperity for a highly vulnerable minority group. The paper analyzes data from a unique, original panel survey of 1380 respondents drawn from pre- and post-referendum Khartoum and post-referendum South Sudan, including 204 Southerners. The first round of the survey was implemented by the authors in the fall of 2010, and the second round was completed in the fall of 2011.
@unpublished{scacco_sudan_2021, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Bernd and Roessler, Philip}, title = {Coping with Partition: Wealth, Security, and Migration in Post-Separation Sudan}, year = {2021}, status = {WP}, proj = {sudan}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {sudan} } - ESElections and selfishnessKjetil Bjorvatn, Simon Galle, Lars Ivar Oppedal Berge, and 4 more authorsElectoral Studies, 2021
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{zhang_2021, author = {Bjorvatn, Kjetil and Galle, Simon and Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal and Miguel, Edward and Posner, Daniel N and Tungodden, Bertil and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Elections and selfishness}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, year = {2021}, pages = {102267}, volume = {69}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, proj = {health}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {health} }
2020
- Does public opinion affect political speech?Anselm Hager, and Hanno HilbigAmerican Journal of Political Science, 2020
Does public opinion affect political speech? Of particular interest is whether public opinion affects (i) what topics politicians address and (ii) what positions they endorse. We present evidence from Germany where the government was recently forced to declassify its public opinion research, allowing us to link the content of the research to subsequent speeches. Our causal identification strategy exploits the exogenous timing of the research’s dissemination to cabinet members within a window of a few days. We find that exposure to public opinion research leads politicians to markedly change their speech. First, we show that linguistic similarity between political speech and public opinion research increases significantly after reports are passed on to the cabinet, suggesting that politicians change the topics they address. Second, we demonstrate that exposure to public opinion research alters politicians’ substantive positions in the direction of majority opinion.
@article{hagar_hilbig_2020, author = {Hager, Anselm and Hilbig, Hanno}, title = {Does public opinion affect political speech?}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {921--937}, volume = {64}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, status = {peer}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation} }
2019
- Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York CityAlbert H Fang, Andrew M Guess, and Macartan HumphreysThe Journal of Politics, 2019
Racial discrimination persists despite established antidiscrimination laws. A common government strategy to deter discrimination is to publicize the law and communicate potential penalties for violations. We study this strategy by coupling an audit experiment with a randomized intervention involving nearly 700 landlords in New York City and report the first causal estimates of the effect on rental discrimination against blacks and Hispanics of a targeted government messaging campaign. We uncover discrimination levels higher than prior estimates indicate, especially against Hispanics, who are approximately 6 percentage points less likely to receive callbacks and offers than whites. We find suggestive evidence that government messaging can reduce discrimination against Hispanics but not against blacks. The findings confirm discrimination’s persistence and suggest that government messaging can address it in some settings, but more work is needed to understand the conditions under which such appeals are most effective.
@article{fang_2019, author = {Fang, Albert H and Guess, Andrew M and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York City}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2019}, number = {1}, pages = {127--141}, volume = {81}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/700107}, url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/700107}, status = {peer}, proj = {housing}, keywords = {experimental, identity politics, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {housing} } - JDEExporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern CongoMacartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez Sierra, and Peter Van der WindtJournal of Development Economics, 2019
We study a randomized Community Driven Reconstruction (CDR) intervention that provided two years of exposure to democratic practices in 1250 villages in eastern Congo. To assess its impact, we examine behavior in a village-level unconditional cash transfer project that distributed $1000 to 457 treatment and control villages. The unconditonal cash transfer provides opportunities to assess whetherpublic funds get captured, what governance practices are employed by villagers and village elites and whether prior exposure to the CDR intervention alters these behaviors. We find no evidence for such effects. The results cast doubt on current attempts to export democratic practices to local communities.
@article{tuungane_2019, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez and {Van der Windt}, Peter}, title = {Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2019}, pages = {279--301}, volume = {140}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.03.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818305078}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {experimental, development, horizontal contestation, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} }
2018
- OUPWhy do women co-operate more in women’s groups?James D Fearon, Macartan Humphreys, and othersTowards Gender Equity in Development, 2018
We examine a public goods game in 83 communities in northern Liberia. Women contributed substantially more to a small-scale development project when playing with other women than in mixed-gender groups, where they contributed at about the same levels as men. We try to explain this composition effect using a structural model, survey responses, and a second manipulation. Results suggest women in the all-women condition put more weight on co-operation regardless of value of public good, fear of discovery, or desire to match others’ behaviour. Game players may have stronger motivation to signal public-spiritedness when primed to consider themselves representatives of the women of the community.
@article{fearon_humphreys_2018, author = {Fearon, James D and Humphreys, Macartan and {others}}, title = {Why do women co-operate more in women's groups?}, journal = {Towards Gender Equity in Development}, year = {2018}, pages = {217}, publisher = {Oxford Scholarship Online}, url = {https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/190008}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {cdd} } - Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in NigeriaAlexandra Scacco, and Shana S WarrenAmerican Political Science Review, 2018
Can positive social contact between members of antagonistic groups reduce prejudice and discrimination? Despite extensive research on social contact, observational studies are difficult to interpret because prejudiced people may select out of contact with out-group members. We overcome this problem by conducting an education-based, randomized field experiment – the Urban Youth Vocational Training program (UYVT) – with 849 randomly sampled Christian and Muslim young men in riot-prone Kaduna, Nigeria. After sixteen weeks of positive intergroup social contact, we find no changes in prejudice, but heterogeneous-class subjects discriminate significantly less against out-group members than subjects in homogeneous classes. We trace this finding to increased discrimination by homogeneous-class subjects compared to non-UYVT study participants, and we highlight potentially negative consequences of in-group social contact. By focusing on skill-building instead of peace messaging, our intervention minimizes reporting bias and offers strong experimental evidence that intergroup social contact can alter behavior in constructive ways, even amid violent conflict.
@article{scacco_2018, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Warren, Shana S}, title = {Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in Nigeria}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2018}, number = {3}, pages = {654--677}, volume = {112}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} }
2014
- Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing SudanAlexandra Scacco, Bernd Beber, and Philip RoesslerThe Journal of Politics, 2014
How do episodes of intergroup violence affect political opinions toward outgroup members? Recent studies offer divergent answers. Some suggest violence deepens antagonism and reduces support for compromise, while others contend it encourages moderation and concessions to prevent further conflict. We argue that violence can fuel both hostility toward the outgroup and acceptance of outgroup objectives and provide evidence from a unique survey of 1,380 respondents implemented by the authors in greater Khartoum in Sudan in 2010 and 2011. We find that Northerners who experienced rioting by Southerners in Khartoum in 2005 were more likely to support Southern independence but less likely to support citizenship for Southerners remaining in the North. In combination, these results suggest that political violence hardens negative intergroup attitudes and makes individuals willing to concede separation to avoid living alongside outgroup members.
@article{scacco_sudan_2014, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Bernd and Roessler, Philip}, title = {Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing Sudan}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2014}, number = {3}, pages = {649-665}, volume = {76}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381614000103}, status = {peer}, proj = {sudan}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {sudan} }
exclusion
2024
- JPRPulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in UgandaJournal of Peace Research, 2024
Does increasing Internet access and use challenge authoritarian elections? I argue that Internet access provides both opposition supporters and government authorities with new means to shape electoral conduct. Opposition supporters can use the Internet to report on electoral malpractice and mobilize for support. At the same time government authorities can use the Internet to monitor antiregime sentiment prior to the elections and disrupt Internet access to selectively repress regime opponents during the elections. Studying Uganda’s 2016 presidential elections, evidence from election monitoring and survey data suggests that electoral violence is significantly higher in opposition strongholds with greater Internet access prior to the Internet disruption and is targeted specifically at voters. Insights from qualitative interviews with politicians, journalists and activists underline that the disruption of Internet access indeed hindered opposition supporters to effectively challenge electoral malpractice. Overall, the results stress the important role that Internet access can play for opposition actors in authoritarian elections. At the same time, they highlight their susceptibility to manipulation by government authorities.
@article{garbe_jpr_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa}, title = {Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, year = {2024}, pages = {842-857}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage UK: London, England}, status = {peer}, proj = {protests, internet}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {protests, internet} } - Vermeintlich unpolitisch. Streiks in China folgen anderen Regeln als in nördlichen IndustrieländernWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Ein Jahr hat Yuequan Guo in Industriebetrieben zweier Provinzen im Osten Chinas verbracht, um zu verstehen, wie Streiks unter den stren- gen Augen von Geschäftsführung und Regierung funktionieren. Die Formen sind andere als in den gut erforschten Industrieländern des Globalen Nordens, es unterscheiden sich Forderungen und Ergebnisse. Es wäre aber voreilig anzunehmen, Streiks schwacher Organisationen im starken Staat seien unpolitisch.
@article{guo_m_2024, author = {Guo, Yuequan}, title = {Vermeintlich unpolitisch. Streiks in China folgen anderen Regeln als in nördlichen Industrieländern}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, number = {2=Nr. 184}, pages = {40-43}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {protests}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {protests} }
2022
- The Myth of the Misinformed Migrant? Survey Insights from Nigeria’s Irregular Migration Epicenter2022
Policy projections and recent research suggest that large numbers of irregular migrants from sub-Saharan Africa will continue to attempt to make their way to Europe over the next few decades. In response, European countries have made and continue to make significant investments in information campaigns designed to discourage irregular African migration. Despite the ubiquity of these campaigns, we know relatively little about potential migrants’ prior knowledge and beliefs. To what extent are potential migrants actually misinformed about the migration journey and destination countries? We bring representative survey data collected in Benin City, Nigeria - a center of irregular migration - to bear on this question. Three key insights emerge. First, potential migrants are better informed about destination contexts than is commonly assumed, and if anything appear to underestimate the economic benefits of life in Europe. Second, they are relatively less well informed about specific risks and other features of the irregular migration journey. Third, we find evidence of optimism bias. Respondents are generally hopeful when asked about Nigerian irregular migrants’ prospects of being able to reach and stay in Europe, but they are especially optimistic when asked about their own chances. Taken together, these findings suggest that existing migration-related information campaigns, and with them a central component of migration policies in countries across the Global North, rest on shaky foundations. Most problematically, our study suggests that campaigns risk becoming misinformation campaigns, particularly when they suggest to potential migrants that they are overestimating the benefits of living in Europe.
@unpublished{scacco_beber_2022, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Bernd}, title = {The Myth of the Misinformed Migrant? Survey Insights from Nigeria's Irregular Migration Epicenter}, year = {2022}, doi = {doi:10.4419/96973121}, status = {WP}, proj = {irr}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {irr} }
elite connections
2023
- RIOThe political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)Tina Freyburg, Lisa Garbe, and Veronique WavreThe Review of International Organizations, 2023
The ’internet’–familiar shorthand for information and communication technologies (ICT)–is built on a physical infrastructure owned by a variety of state and private actors, foreign and domestic, with multiple interests. It has not only driven change on a global scale; its spread also had a profound impact on the social sciences. However, our understanding of how its architecture, and especially its owners, influence its political and economic impact is still in its infancy. This paper presents the Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO) dataset on ownership of internet service providers (ISPs) that allows to recognize the internet as strategically built and used by governments and corporations. Along with a thorough discussion of the conceptualization and operationalization of ownership as a variable, the TOSCO dataset enables comparative large-N analysis of the determinants and effects of varying ownership structures and identities in the transforming context of 49 African countries, 2000â2019. We demonstrate its usefulness with descriptive statistics and regression analyses using replication data from research on the internet’s democratizing and corruption-reducing effects. In allowing for a more realistic account, TOSCO supports scholars and practitioners concerned with the determinants and effects of internet service provision, use and control in Africa and beyond.
@article{garbe_rio_2023, author = {Freyburg, Tina and Garbe, Lisa and Wavre, Veronique}, title = {The political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)}, journal = {The Review of International Organizations}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {573--600}, volume = {18}, publisher = {Springer}, status = {peer}, proj = {networks, internet}, keywords = {elite connections}, proj.1 = {internet} } - ICSHow African countries respond to fake news and hate speechLisa Garbe, Lisa-Marie Selvik, and Pauline LemaireInformation, Communication & Society, 2023
While scholars have already identified and discussed some of the most urgent problems in content moderation in the Global North, fewer scholars have paid attention to content regulation in the Global South, and notably Africa. In the absence of content moderation by Western tech giants themselves, African countries appear to have shifted their focus towards state-centric approaches to regulating content. We argue that those approaches are largely informed by a regime’s motivation to repress media freedom as well as institutional constraints on the executive. We use structural topic modelling on a corpus of news articles worldwide (Nâ=â7â²787) mentioning hate speech and fake news in 47 African countries to estimate the salience of discussions of legal and technological approaches to content regulation. We find that, in particular, discussions of technological strategies are more salient in regimes with little respect for media freedom and fewer legislative constraints. Overall, our findings suggest that the state is the dominant actor in shaping content regulation across African countries and point to the need for a better understanding of how regime-specific characteristics shape regulatory decisions.
@article{garbe_wep_2023, author = {Garbe, Lisa and Selvik, Lisa-Marie and Lemaire, Pauline}, title = {How African countries respond to fake news and hate speech}, journal = {Information, Communication \& Society}, year = {2023}, number = {1}, pages = {86--103}, volume = {26}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, status = {peer}, proj = {internet}, keywords = {democracy, elite connections} }
methods
2025
- Making, Updating, and Querying Causal Models with CausalQueries2025
The R package ‘CausalQueries‘ can be used to make, update, and query causal models defined on binary nodes. Users provide a causal statement of the form ‘X -> M <- Y; M <-> Y‘ which is interpreted as a structural causal model over a collection of binary nodes. Then ‘CausalQueries‘ allows users to (1) identify the set of principal strata—causal types—required to characterize all possible causal relations between nodes that are consistent with the causal statement (2) determine a set of parameters needed to characterize distributions over these causal types (3) update beliefs over distributions of causal types, using a ‘stan‘ model plus data, and (4) pose a wide range of causal queries of the model, using either the prior distribution, the posterior distribution, or a user-specified candidate vector of parameters.
@unpublished{cq_2025, author = {Tietz, Till and Medina, Lily and Syunyaev, Georgiy and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Making, Updating, and Querying Causal Models with CausalQueries}, journal = {Under review}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods, causal inference}, proj.1 = {inference} } - JCIBounds on the fixed effects estimand in the presence of heterogeneous assignment2025
In many contexts, treatment assignment probabilities differ across strata or are correlated with some observable third variables. Regression with covariate adjustment is often used to account for these features. It is known however that in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects this approach does not yield unbiased estimates of average treatment effects. But it is not well known how estimates generated in this way diverge from unbiased estimates of average treatment effects. Here I show that biases can be large, even in large samples. However I also find conditions under which the usual approach provides interpretable estimates and I identify a monotonicity condition that ensures that least squares estimates lie between estimates of the average treatment effects for the treated and the average treatment effects for the controls. The monotonicity condition can be satisfied for example with Roy-type selection and is guaranteed in the two stratum case.
@unpublished{ols_2025, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Bounds on the fixed effects estimand in the presence of heterogeneous assignment}, journal = {forthcoming, Journal of Causal Inference}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods, causal inference}, proj.1 = {inference} }
2024
- SMRBounding causes of effects with mediatorsPhilip Dawid, Macartan Humphreys, and Monica MusioSociological Methods & Research, 2024
Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. We are interested in assessing whether an outcome in some case is due to the exposure. This ’probability of causation’ is of interest in comparative historical analysis where scholars use process tracing approaches to learn about causes of outcomes for single units by observing events along a causal path. The probability of causation is typically not identified, but bounds can be placed on it. Here, we provide a full characterization of the bounds that can be achieved in the ideal case that X and Y are connected by a causal chain of complete mediators, and we know the probabilistic structure of the full chain. Our results are largely negative. We show that, even in these very favorable conditions, the gains from positive evidence on mediators is modest.
@article{dawid_204, author = {Dawid, Philip and Humphreys, Macartan and Musio, Monica}, title = {Bounding causes of effects with mediators}, journal = {Sociological Methods \& Research}, year = {2024}, pages = {4.91E+14}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}, status = {peer}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {inference} }
2023
- PUPResearch Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and RedesignGraeme Blair, Alexander Coppock, and Macartan Humphreys2023
Assessing the properties of research designs before implementing them can be tricky for even the most seasoned researchers. This book provides a powerful frameworkâModel, Inquiry, Data Strategy, and Answer Strategy, or MIDAâfor describing any empirical research design in the social sciences. MIDA enables you to characterize the key analytic features of observational and experimental designs, qualitative and quantitative designs, and descriptive and causal designs. An accompanying algorithm lets you declare designs in the MIDA framework, diagnose properties such as bias and precision, and redesign features like sampling, assignment, measurement, and estimation procedures. Research Design in the Social Sciences is an essential tool kit for the entire life of a research project, from planning and realization of design to the integration of your results into the scientific literature.
@book{dd_2023, author = {Blair, Graeme and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Research Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691199573/research-design-in-the-social-sciences}, status = {peer}, proj = {design}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {design} } - SSRNGathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific ModelsGolden Miriam A., Slough Tara, Zhai Haoyu, and 29 more authorsThe Social Science Research Network, 2023
On what basis can we claim a scholarly community understands a phenomenon? Social scientists generally propagate many rival explanations for what they study. How best to discriminate between or aggregate them introduces myriad questions because we lack standard tools that synthesize discrete explanations. In this paper, we assemble and test a set of approaches to the selection and aggregation of predictive statistical models representing different social scientific explanations for a single outcome: original crowd-sourced predictive models of COVID-19 mortality. We evaluate social scientists ability to select or discriminate between these models using an expert forecast elicitation exercise. We provide a framework for aggregating discrete explanations, including using an ensemble algorithm (model stacking). Although the best models outperform benchmark machine learning models, experts are generally unable to identify models predictive accuracy. Findings support the use of algorithmic approaches for the aggregation of social scientific explanations over human judgement or ad-hoc processes.
@article{golden_covid_2023, author = {A., Golden Miriam and Tara, Slough and Haoyu, Zhai and Alexandra, Scacco and Macartan, Humphreys and Eva, Vivalt and Alberto, Diaz-Cayeros and Yi, Dionne Kim and Sampada, KC and Eugenia, Nazrullaeva and M., Aronow P. and Jan-Tino, Brethouwe and Anne, Buijsrogge and John, Burnett and Stephanie, DeMora and Ramón, Enríquez José and Robbert, Fokkink and Chengyu, Fu and Nicholas, Haas and Virginia, Hayes Sarah and Hanno, Hilbig and R., Hobbs William and Dan, Honig and Matthew, Kavanagh and A., Lindelauf Roy H. and Nina, McMurry and L., Merolla Jennifer and Amanda, Robinson and S., Solís Arce Julio and ten Thij Marijn and Felicity, Türkmen Fulya and Stephen, Utych}, title = {Gathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific Models}, journal = {The Social Science Research Network}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Elsevier Inc.}, doi = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4570855}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid, aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {covid} } - CUPIntegrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method ResearchMacartan Humphreys, and Alan M Jacobs2023
Integrated Inferences develops a framework for using causal models and Bayesian updating for qualitative and mixed-methods research. By making, updating, and querying causal models, researchers are able to integrate information from different data sources while connecting theory and empirics in a far more systematic and transparent manner than standard qualitative and quantitative approaches allow. This book provides an introduction to fundamental principles of causal inference and Bayesian updating and shows how these tools can be used to implement and justify inferences using within-case (process tracing) evidence, correlational patterns across many cases, or a mix of the two. The authors also demonstrate how causal models can guide research design, informing choices about which cases, observations, and mixes of methods will be most useful for addressing any given question.
@book{humphreys_jacobs_2023, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Jacobs, Alan M}, title = {Integrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method Research}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/integrated-inferences/45B07964AD4718A74CDE3E35A31F26FA}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint DataFelix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, Ferdinand Geissler, and 2 more authorsPolitical Analysis, 2023
Survey experiments are an important tool to measure policy preferences. Researchers often rely on the random assignment of policy attribute levels to estimate different types of average marginal effects. Yet, researchers are often interested in how respondents trade-off different policy dimensions. We use a conjoint experiment administered to more than 10,000 respondents in Germany, to study preferences over personal freedoms and public welfare during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a pre-registered structural model, we estimate policy ideal points and indifference curves to assess the conditions under which citizens are willing to sacrifice freedoms in the interest of public well-being. We document broad willingness to accept restrictions on rights alongside sharp heterogeneity with respect to vaccination status. The majority of citizens are vaccinated and strongly support limitations on freedoms in response to extreme conditions–especially, when they vaccinated themselves are exempted from these limitations. The unvaccinated minority prefers no restrictions on freedoms regardless of the severity of the pandemic. These policy packages also matter for reported trust in government, in opposite ways for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens.
@article{vaccines_pa_2023, author = {Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Kl{\"u}ver, Heike and Giesecke, Johannes}, title = {Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data}, journal = {Political Analysis}, year = {2023}, number = {2=Nr. 32}, pages = {285-293}, pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {health, experimental, methods}, proj.1 = {vaccines} }
2020
- The aggregation challengeWorld Development, 2020
Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer have had an enormous impact on scholarship on the political economy of development. But as RCTs have become more central in this field, political scientists have struggled to draw implications from proliferating micro-level studies for longstanding macro level problems. We describe these challenges and point to recent innovations to help address them.
@article{aggregation_2020, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {The aggregation challenge}, journal = {World Development}, year = {2020}, pages = {104806}, volume = {127}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {methods, development}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - ChapterField experiments, theory, and external validitySAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations, 2020
Critics of field experiments lament a turn away from theory and criticize findings for weak external validity. In this chapter, we outline strategies to address these challenges. Highlighting the connection between these twin critiques, we discuss how structural approaches can both help design experiments that maximize the researcher’s ability to learn about theories and enable researchers to judge to what extent the results of one experiment can travel to other settings. We illustrate with a simulated analysis of a bargaining problem to show how theory can help make external claims with respect to both populations and treatments and how combining random assignment and theory can both sharpen learning and alert researchers to over-dependence on theory.
@article{wilke_2020, author = {Wilke, Anna and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Field experiments, theory, and external validity}, journal = {SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations}, year = {2020}, pages = {1007--35}, publisher = {SAGE London}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {theory, methods}, proj.1 = {aggregation} }
2019
- Declaring and diagnosing research designsGraeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, and 1 more authorAmerican Political Science Review, 2019
Researchers need to select high-quality research designs and communicate those designs clearly to readers. Both tasks are difficult. We provide a framework for formally declaring the analytically relevant features of a research design in a demonstrably complete manner, with applications to qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods research. The approach to design declaration we describe requires defining a model of the world (M), an inquiry (I), a data strategy (D), and an answer strategy (A). Declaration of these features in code provides sufficient information for researchers and readers to use Monte Carlo techniques to diagnose properties such as power, bias, accuracy of qualitative causal inferences, and other diagnosands. Ex ante declarations can be used to improve designs and facilitate preregistration, analysis, and reconciliation of intended and actual analyses. Ex post declarations are useful for describing, sharing, reanalyzing, and critiquing existing designs. We provide open-source software, DeclareDesign, to implement the proposed approach.
@article{dd_2019, author = {Blair, Graeme and Cooper, Jasper and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Declaring and diagnosing research designs}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2019}, number = {3}, pages = {838--859}, volume = {113}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000194}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/declaring-and-diagnosing-research-designs/3CB0C0BB0810AEF8FF65446B3E2E4926}, status = {peer}, proj = {design}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {design} }