by year
2025
- DEEmployment Effects of Skills Trainings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review of Recent Randomized Controlled TrialsBernd Beber, Tabea Lakemann, Regina Schnars, and 1 more authorDe Economist, 2025
This study provides a comprehensive systematic review of recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the employment effects of skills training programs in sub-Saharan Africa. The review focuses on studies conducted between 2019 and 2024, a period marked by a significant increase in the number of RCTs of training interventions in this region, and we thus fill a gap left by earlier reviews that did not reflect this recent surge in experimental studies. We employ the standard SPIDER approach for defining search terms and the PRISMA procedure for search and selection to systematically analyze the impact of these training programs on employment outcomes. The findings reveal a shift towards a more optimistic assessment compared to previous analyses, suggesting that many recent skills training programs do contribute to improving employment-related outcomes.
@article{beber_2025, author = {Beber, Bernd and Lakemann, Tabea and Schnars, Regina and Lay, Jann}, title = {Employment Effects of Skills Trainings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review of Recent Randomized Controlled Trials}, journal = {De Economist}, year = {2025}, pages = {87-120}, volume = {173}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10645-024-09442-6}, status = {peer} } - Making, Updating, and Querying Causal Models with CausalQueries2025
The R package ‘CausalQueries‘ can be used to make, update, and query causal models defined on binary nodes. Users provide a causal statement of the form ‘X -> M <- Y; M <-> Y‘ which is interpreted as a structural causal model over a collection of binary nodes. Then ‘CausalQueries‘ allows users to (1) identify the set of principal strata—causal types—required to characterize all possible causal relations between nodes that are consistent with the causal statement (2) determine a set of parameters needed to characterize distributions over these causal types (3) update beliefs over distributions of causal types, using a ‘stan‘ model plus data, and (4) pose a wide range of causal queries of the model, using either the prior distribution, the posterior distribution, or a user-specified candidate vector of parameters.
@unpublished{cq_2025, author = {Tietz, Till and Medina, Lily and Syunyaev, Georgiy and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Making, Updating, and Querying Causal Models with CausalQueries}, journal = {Under review}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods, causal inference}, proj.1 = {inference} } - Political salience and regime resilienceSebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Steffen Huck, and Macartan Humphreys2025
We study a version of a canonical model of attacks against political regimes where agents have an expressive utility for taking political stances that is scaled by the salience of political decision-making. Increases in political salience can have divergent effects on regime stability depending on costs of being on the losing side. When regimes have weak sanctioning mechanisms, middling levels of salience can pose the greatest threat, as regime supporters are insufficiently motivated to act on their preferences and regime opponents are sufficiently motivated to stop conforming. Our results speak to the phenomenon of charged debates about democracy by identifying conditions under which heightened interest in political decision-making can pose a threat to democracy in and of itself.
@unpublished{huck_2025, author = {Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Sebastian and Huck, Steffen and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Political salience and regime resilience}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {protests}, keywords = {democracy, theory, vertical contestations}, proj.1 = {protests} } - JCIBounds on the fixed effects estimand in the presence of heterogeneous assignment2025
In many contexts, treatment assignment probabilities differ across strata or are correlated with some observable third variables. Regression with covariate adjustment is often used to account for these features. It is known however that in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects this approach does not yield unbiased estimates of average treatment effects. But it is not well known how estimates generated in this way diverge from unbiased estimates of average treatment effects. Here I show that biases can be large, even in large samples. However I also find conditions under which the usual approach provides interpretable estimates and I identify a monotonicity condition that ensures that least squares estimates lie between estimates of the average treatment effects for the treated and the average treatment effects for the controls. The monotonicity condition can be satisfied for example with Roy-type selection and is guaranteed in the two stratum case.
@unpublished{ols_2025, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Bounds on the fixed effects estimand in the presence of heterogeneous assignment}, journal = {forthcoming, Journal of Causal Inference}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods, causal inference}, proj.1 = {inference} } - Outgroup AvoidanceChagai M. Weiss, Alexandra Siegel, and Alexandra Scacco2025
Encouraging engagement with outgroup perspectives is a popular strategy to improve intergroup relations. But in deeply divided societies, individuals often actively avoid outgroup members. In a Facebook field experiment, we embedded Palestinian posts in Jewish Israelis Facebook timelines for a period of 14 days. We find no effect on attitudes toward the outgroup and a modest decrease in subsequent consumption of outgroup content, a pattern we attribute to participants avoidance of constructive engagement. To better understand this avoidance, we conducted a set of survey-embedded behavioral tasks. Results suggest that outgroup avoidance online is widespread, associated with outgroup prejudice, explained by feelings of discomfort, anger, mistrust in outgroups, and pessimism, and challenging to overcome. Our findings indicate that avoidance is a barrier to constructive intergroup engagement in naturalistic settings, rendering many interventions that may be effective in controlled environments difficult to implement or scale in practice.
@unpublished{scacco_2025, author = {Weiss, Chagai M. and Siegel, Alexandra and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Outgroup Avoidance}, journal = {forthcoming, The Journal of Politics}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {media}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {covid} } - Intergroup Contact, Empathy Training, and Refugee-Native Integration: Evidence from a Field Experiment in LebanonSalma Mousa, Lennard Naumann, and Alexandra Scacco2025
Can intergroup contact improve relations between refugees and host communities? If so, are there added returns to combining contact and empathy education? Does either approach unlock spillover effects among household members? To answer these questions, we conduct a field experiment that brings together Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals in three localities in Lebanon, where refugees make up a quarter of the population. Working with a Lebanese NGO, we randomly assign Lebanese and Syrian youth participants to an ethnically heterogeneous or homogeneous classroom for a 12-week psycho-social support program. We further randomize whether participants received additional empathy education or a placebo curriculum focused on health and nutrition. We find that contact is more effective at teaching conflict resolution, but reduces the willingness to engage in further contact, as measured by attending an event celebrating the ougroups culture. By contrast, empathy education decreases prejudice without negative effects on behavior. We do not find clear interaction effects of contact and empathy training, nor significant spillover effects among parents. The results point to the different trade-offs associated with both contact and empathy interventions in fragile settings.
@unpublished{scacco_empathy_2025, author = {Mousa, Salma and Naumann, Lennard and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Intergroup Contact, Empathy Training, and Refugee-Native Integration: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Lebanon}, year = {2025}, status = {WP}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} }
2024
- JDEInformation frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and UgandaSarah Frohnweiler, Bernd Beber, and Cara EbertJournal of Development Economics, 2024
Information frictions about benefits of migration can lead to inefficient migration choices. We study the effects of randomly assigned information treatments concerning regional income differentials in Ghana and Uganda to explore participants belief updating and changes in internal migration intentions, destination preferences, and actual migration. Treated participants prefer higher income destinations, while effects on intent plausibly follow subjects initial under- or overestimation of potential gains, with asymmetric updating propensities. Effects persist for 18 months, and discussions with others about migrating increase, but actual migration does not. Knowledge about income affects intentions and destination choices, but barriers to actual relocation are complex.
@article{beber_2024, author = {Frohnweiler, Sarah and Beber, Bernd and Ebert, Cara}, title = {Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2024}, volume = {171}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103311}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387824000609}, status = {peer} } - Wenn Nord und Süd zusammenarbeiten. Erfahrungen aus einem Projekt in UgandaWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Die Frage, welche Mechanismen politische Teilhalbe ermöglichen, ist eine der Kernfragen der WZB-Abteilung Institutionen und politische Ungleichheit. Freude und Neugier waren daher groÃ, als aus der ugandischen Hauptstadt Kampala die Anfrage an das Team um Macartan Humphreys kam, die Erarbeitung einer Bürgercharta zu unterstützen. Es begann ein aufschlussreiches Zusammenspiel von Wissenschaft und Praxis und ein Prozess der Koproduktion von Nord und Süd.
@article{chirikure_1_2024, author = {Chirikure, Nora and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Wenn Nord und S{\"u}d zusammenarbeiten. Erfahrungen aus einem Projekt in Uganda}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, number = {2=Nr. 184}, pages = {45817}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {kcca}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {kcca} } - SMRBounding causes of effects with mediatorsPhilip Dawid, Macartan Humphreys, and Monica MusioSociological Methods & Research, 2024
Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. We are interested in assessing whether an outcome in some case is due to the exposure. This ’probability of causation’ is of interest in comparative historical analysis where scholars use process tracing approaches to learn about causes of outcomes for single units by observing events along a causal path. The probability of causation is typically not identified, but bounds can be placed on it. Here, we provide a full characterization of the bounds that can be achieved in the ideal case that X and Y are connected by a causal chain of complete mediators, and we know the probabilistic structure of the full chain. Our results are largely negative. We show that, even in these very favorable conditions, the gains from positive evidence on mediators is modest.
@article{dawid_204, author = {Dawid, Philip and Humphreys, Macartan and Musio, Monica}, title = {Bounding causes of effects with mediators}, journal = {Sociological Methods \& Research}, year = {2024}, pages = {4.91E+14}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}, status = {peer}, proj = {inference}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {inference} } - JPRPulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in UgandaJournal of Peace Research, 2024
Does increasing Internet access and use challenge authoritarian elections? I argue that Internet access provides both opposition supporters and government authorities with new means to shape electoral conduct. Opposition supporters can use the Internet to report on electoral malpractice and mobilize for support. At the same time government authorities can use the Internet to monitor antiregime sentiment prior to the elections and disrupt Internet access to selectively repress regime opponents during the elections. Studying Uganda’s 2016 presidential elections, evidence from election monitoring and survey data suggests that electoral violence is significantly higher in opposition strongholds with greater Internet access prior to the Internet disruption and is targeted specifically at voters. Insights from qualitative interviews with politicians, journalists and activists underline that the disruption of Internet access indeed hindered opposition supporters to effectively challenge electoral malpractice. Overall, the results stress the important role that Internet access can play for opposition actors in authoritarian elections. At the same time, they highlight their susceptibility to manipulation by government authorities.
@article{garbe_jpr_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa}, title = {Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, year = {2024}, pages = {842-857}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage UK: London, England}, status = {peer}, proj = {protests, internet}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {protests, internet} } - Lesbar werden. In Kenia stößt die Einführung digitaler Ausweise nicht nur auf WiderstandWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Ausweise aus Papier sind ein Auslaufmodell. Viele Länder setzen auf elektronische Formen, die Identität von Menschen festzustellen in einer Karte, die biometrische und persönliche Merkmale speichert. Datenschutzbedenken liegen nahe. Doch eine Umfrage in Kenia zeigt, dass viele Menschen dort die Umstellung mit großen Hoffnungen verbinden.
@article{garbe_scacco_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {Lesbar werden. In Kenia stößt die Einführung digitaler Ausweise nicht nur auf Widerstand}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, number = {2=Nr. 184}, pages = {27-30}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {eid}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {eid} } - Vermeintlich unpolitisch. Streiks in China folgen anderen Regeln als in nördlichen IndustrieländernWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Ein Jahr hat Yuequan Guo in Industriebetrieben zweier Provinzen im Osten Chinas verbracht, um zu verstehen, wie Streiks unter den stren- gen Augen von Geschäftsführung und Regierung funktionieren. Die Formen sind andere als in den gut erforschten Industrieländern des Globalen Nordens, es unterscheiden sich Forderungen und Ergebnisse. Es wäre aber voreilig anzunehmen, Streiks schwacher Organisationen im starken Staat seien unpolitisch.
@article{guo_m_2024, author = {Guo, Yuequan}, title = {Vermeintlich unpolitisch. Streiks in China folgen anderen Regeln als in nördlichen Industrieländern}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, number = {2=Nr. 184}, pages = {40-43}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {protests}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {protests} } - CPSWho Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in KenyaComparative Political Studies, 2024
Governments across the Global South have begun introducing biometric IDs (eIDs) in an attempt to improve citizen-state legibility. While such initiatives can improve government efficiency, they also raise important questions about citizen privacy, especially for groups with a history of mistrust in the state. If concerns about increased legibility produce differential eID uptake or changes in political behavior, eID initiatives may exacerbate societal inequalities. In a conjoint experiment with 2,073 respondents from four Kenyan regions, we examine how perceptions of and willingness to register for eID under different policy conditions vary across politically dominant, opposition, and ’securitized’ (heavily policed) ethnic groups. Our results indicate broad support for expanded legibility, with respondents across groups preferring policies that link eIDs with a range of government functions. However, we find meaningful group-level variation in support for specific policy features, and suggestive evidence that policies facilitating greater surveillance may discourage opposition political participation.
@article{legible_2024, author = {Garbe, Lisa and McMurry, Nina and Scacco, Alexandra and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Who Wants to be Legible? Digitalization and Intergroup Inequality in Kenya}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2024}, institution = {WZB Discussion Paper}, status = {peer}, proj = {eid}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {eid} } - Ungleichgewicht der MachtWZB-Mitteilungen, 2024
Forschende aus unterschiedlichen Teilen der Erde haben immer noch sehr ungleiche Startchancen. Das gilt für die Finanzierung ihrer Forschung, akademische Karrierewege, für Visa und Netzwerke. Nora Chirikure und Lennard Naumann fragen, was es braucht, damit Süd-Nord-Forschungspartnerschaften wirklich gleichberechtigt sind und Forschung aus dem Globalen Süden Erfolg hat.
@article{vhirikulre_2_2024, author = {Chirikure, Nora and Naumann, Lennard}, title = {Ungleichgewicht der Macht}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2024}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, keywords = {vertical linkages} }
2023
- Delayed Effects on Migration Intentions in an Information Provision Experiment in GhanaSarah Frohnweiler, Bernd Beber, and Cara EbertRevue d’économie du développement, 2023
We report experimental results from Ghana, where treated subjects received information on regional income differentials. We do not see an effect on migration intentions directly after the intervention, but the effect of the treatment unfolds over time. Eighteen months later, subjects assigned to receive income information are on average significantly less likely to express enthusiasm for moving to another region, because individuals that had inaccurately high expectations about incomes elsewhere compared to their current place of residence are now more likely to want to forgo relocation. Contrary to common claims that effects observed in light-touch information experiments are likely to dissipate quickly, we suggest that some types of content in high-stakes domains such as migration can take time to reverberate and be incorporated into individuals’ decision calculus. We also discuss that delayed effects may be uncommonly observed because long-term follow-ups are rare in the absence of short-term effects.
@article{beber_2023, author = {Frohnweiler, Sarah and Beber, Bernd and Ebert, Cara}, title = {Delayed Effects on Migration Intentions in an Information Provision Experiment in Ghana}, journal = {Revue d'économie du développement}, year = {2023}, pages = {37-44}, volume = {31}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3917/edd.373.0037}, status = {peer} } - WEPSoftening the corrective effect of populism: populist parties’ impact on political interestMiroslav Nemčok, Constantin Manuel Bosancianu, Olga Leshchenko, and 1 more authorWest European Politics, 2023
Populist appeals to a ’pure people’ have been theorised to mobilise previously disengaged citizens. However, this ’corrective consequence’ has found weak support in empirical research. This finding is consistent with studies that suggest that novel campaign appeals and new political offerings have a negligible effect on turnout. As a consequence, this research proposes a distinction between the behavioural and attitudinal effects of populism and introduces a softened revision to the corrective argument: Despite a negligible behavioural impact on individuals’ turnout propensity, the electoral success of populism is nevertheless associated with an attitudinal change: increased political interest. This proposition is supported by two empirical tests. The first detects this dynamic among 232,208 respondents in 136 national election studies from 16 Western countries (1970-2017). The second analysis, which uses an improved causal identification strategy, uncovers an analogous effect in the GESIS Panel (2014-17, Germany). Hence, the emergence of populist parties can stimulate political interest among citizens, even though it does not necessarily lead to increased turnout.
@article{bosancianu_wep_2023, author = {Nem{\v{c}}ok, Miroslav and Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Leshchenko, Olga and Kluknavsk{\'a}, Alena}, title = {Softening the corrective effect of populism: populist parties' impact on political interest}, journal = {West European Politics}, year = {2023}, number = {4}, pages = {760--787}, volume = {46}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, status = {peer} } - PUPResearch Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and RedesignGraeme Blair, Alexander Coppock, and Macartan Humphreys2023
Assessing the properties of research designs before implementing them can be tricky for even the most seasoned researchers. This book provides a powerful frameworkâModel, Inquiry, Data Strategy, and Answer Strategy, or MIDAâfor describing any empirical research design in the social sciences. MIDA enables you to characterize the key analytic features of observational and experimental designs, qualitative and quantitative designs, and descriptive and causal designs. An accompanying algorithm lets you declare designs in the MIDA framework, diagnose properties such as bias and precision, and redesign features like sampling, assignment, measurement, and estimation procedures. Research Design in the Social Sciences is an essential tool kit for the entire life of a research project, from planning and realization of design to the integration of your results into the scientific literature.
@book{dd_2023, author = {Blair, Graeme and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Research Design in the Social Sciences: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691199573/research-design-in-the-social-sciences}, status = {peer}, proj = {design}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {design} } - RIOThe political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)Tina Freyburg, Lisa Garbe, and Veronique WavreThe Review of International Organizations, 2023
The ’internet’–familiar shorthand for information and communication technologies (ICT)–is built on a physical infrastructure owned by a variety of state and private actors, foreign and domestic, with multiple interests. It has not only driven change on a global scale; its spread also had a profound impact on the social sciences. However, our understanding of how its architecture, and especially its owners, influence its political and economic impact is still in its infancy. This paper presents the Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO) dataset on ownership of internet service providers (ISPs) that allows to recognize the internet as strategically built and used by governments and corporations. Along with a thorough discussion of the conceptualization and operationalization of ownership as a variable, the TOSCO dataset enables comparative large-N analysis of the determinants and effects of varying ownership structures and identities in the transforming context of 49 African countries, 2000â2019. We demonstrate its usefulness with descriptive statistics and regression analyses using replication data from research on the internet’s democratizing and corruption-reducing effects. In allowing for a more realistic account, TOSCO supports scholars and practitioners concerned with the determinants and effects of internet service provision, use and control in Africa and beyond.
@article{garbe_rio_2023, author = {Freyburg, Tina and Garbe, Lisa and Wavre, Veronique}, title = {The political power of internet business: A comprehensive dataset of Telecommunications Ownership and Control (TOSCO)}, journal = {The Review of International Organizations}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {573--600}, volume = {18}, publisher = {Springer}, status = {peer}, proj = {networks, internet}, keywords = {elite connections}, proj.1 = {internet} } - ICSHow African countries respond to fake news and hate speechLisa Garbe, Lisa-Marie Selvik, and Pauline LemaireInformation, Communication & Society, 2023
While scholars have already identified and discussed some of the most urgent problems in content moderation in the Global North, fewer scholars have paid attention to content regulation in the Global South, and notably Africa. In the absence of content moderation by Western tech giants themselves, African countries appear to have shifted their focus towards state-centric approaches to regulating content. We argue that those approaches are largely informed by a regime’s motivation to repress media freedom as well as institutional constraints on the executive. We use structural topic modelling on a corpus of news articles worldwide (Nâ=â7â²787) mentioning hate speech and fake news in 47 African countries to estimate the salience of discussions of legal and technological approaches to content regulation. We find that, in particular, discussions of technological strategies are more salient in regimes with little respect for media freedom and fewer legislative constraints. Overall, our findings suggest that the state is the dominant actor in shaping content regulation across African countries and point to the need for a better understanding of how regime-specific characteristics shape regulatory decisions.
@article{garbe_wep_2023, author = {Garbe, Lisa and Selvik, Lisa-Marie and Lemaire, Pauline}, title = {How African countries respond to fake news and hate speech}, journal = {Information, Communication \& Society}, year = {2023}, number = {1}, pages = {86--103}, volume = {26}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, status = {peer}, proj = {internet}, keywords = {democracy, elite connections} } - SSRNGathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific ModelsGolden Miriam A., Slough Tara, Zhai Haoyu, and 29 more authorsThe Social Science Research Network, 2023
On what basis can we claim a scholarly community understands a phenomenon? Social scientists generally propagate many rival explanations for what they study. How best to discriminate between or aggregate them introduces myriad questions because we lack standard tools that synthesize discrete explanations. In this paper, we assemble and test a set of approaches to the selection and aggregation of predictive statistical models representing different social scientific explanations for a single outcome: original crowd-sourced predictive models of COVID-19 mortality. We evaluate social scientists ability to select or discriminate between these models using an expert forecast elicitation exercise. We provide a framework for aggregating discrete explanations, including using an ensemble algorithm (model stacking). Although the best models outperform benchmark machine learning models, experts are generally unable to identify models predictive accuracy. Findings support the use of algorithmic approaches for the aggregation of social scientific explanations over human judgement or ad-hoc processes.
@article{golden_covid_2023, author = {A., Golden Miriam and Tara, Slough and Haoyu, Zhai and Alexandra, Scacco and Macartan, Humphreys and Eva, Vivalt and Alberto, Diaz-Cayeros and Yi, Dionne Kim and Sampada, KC and Eugenia, Nazrullaeva and M., Aronow P. and Jan-Tino, Brethouwe and Anne, Buijsrogge and John, Burnett and Stephanie, DeMora and Ramón, Enríquez José and Robbert, Fokkink and Chengyu, Fu and Nicholas, Haas and Virginia, Hayes Sarah and Hanno, Hilbig and R., Hobbs William and Dan, Honig and Matthew, Kavanagh and A., Lindelauf Roy H. and Nina, McMurry and L., Merolla Jennifer and Amanda, Robinson and S., Solís Arce Julio and ten Thij Marijn and Felicity, Türkmen Fulya and Stephen, Utych}, title = {Gathering, Evaluating, and Aggregating Social Scientific Models}, journal = {The Social Science Research Network}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Elsevier Inc.}, doi = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4570855}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid, aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {covid} } - CUPIntegrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method ResearchMacartan Humphreys, and Alan M Jacobs2023
Integrated Inferences develops a framework for using causal models and Bayesian updating for qualitative and mixed-methods research. By making, updating, and querying causal models, researchers are able to integrate information from different data sources while connecting theory and empirics in a far more systematic and transparent manner than standard qualitative and quantitative approaches allow. This book provides an introduction to fundamental principles of causal inference and Bayesian updating and shows how these tools can be used to implement and justify inferences using within-case (process tracing) evidence, correlational patterns across many cases, or a mix of the two. The authors also demonstrate how causal models can guide research design, informing choices about which cases, observations, and mixes of methods will be most useful for addressing any given question.
@book{humphreys_jacobs_2023, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Jacobs, Alan M}, title = {Integrated Inferences: Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed-Method Research}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/integrated-inferences/45B07964AD4718A74CDE3E35A31F26FA}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - PLOSCOVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort studyNursena Aksunger, Corey Vernot, Rebecca Littman, and 8 more authorsPLoS Medicine, 2023
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{scacco_health_2023, author = {Aksunger, Nursena and Vernot, Corey and Littman, Rebecca and Voors, Maarten and Meriggi, Niccolo F and Abajobir, Amanuel and Beber, Bernd and Dai, Katherine and Egger, Dennis and Islam, Asad and {others}, Alexandra Scacco}, title = {COVID-19 and mental health in 8 low-and middle-income countries: A prospective cohort study}, journal = {PLoS Medicine}, year = {2023}, number = {4}, pages = {e1004081}, volume = {20}, publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {media} } - ChapterReducing prejudice through intergroup contact interventionsRebecca Littman, Alexandra Scacco, and Chagai Weiss2023
Intergroup contact interventions have long been heralded as a promising method for reducing prejudice and improving intergroup relations. Contact can occur through face-to-face interactions or indirectly through real or fictional others. Meta-analyses of intergroup contact interventions typically show that contact with outgroup members reduces prejudice. However, well-powered field experiments testing contact interventions find more mixed results: some show large, positive effects of contact on attitudes and/or behaviors, while others find no or mixed effects. These findings raise a number of important questions about the conditions under which different kinds of intergroup contact are likely to improve intergroup relations and what outcomes are most likely to be affected. This chapter will provide a theoretical background of direct and indirect forms of intergroup contact, and will review evidence from meta-analyses on whether these contact interventions reduce prejudice. It will then take a deeper look at a series of intergroup contact studies conducted recently in field settings. Finally, it will outline the big open questions in intergroup contact research and provide tips for conducting contact interventions.
@inbook{scacco_littman_2023, author = {Littman, Rebecca and Scacco, Alexandra and Weiss, Chagai}, title = {Reducing prejudice through intergroup contact interventions}, year = {2023}, pages = {45732}, publisher = {Routledge: Taylor and Francis AS}, booktitle = {Psychological Intergroup Interventions: Evidence-based Approaches to Improve Intergroup Relations}, editor = {Halperin, Eran and Hameiri, Boaz and Littman, Rebecca}, status = {peer}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} } - Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint DataFelix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, Ferdinand Geissler, and 2 more authorsPolitical Analysis, 2023
Survey experiments are an important tool to measure policy preferences. Researchers often rely on the random assignment of policy attribute levels to estimate different types of average marginal effects. Yet, researchers are often interested in how respondents trade-off different policy dimensions. We use a conjoint experiment administered to more than 10,000 respondents in Germany, to study preferences over personal freedoms and public welfare during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a pre-registered structural model, we estimate policy ideal points and indifference curves to assess the conditions under which citizens are willing to sacrifice freedoms in the interest of public well-being. We document broad willingness to accept restrictions on rights alongside sharp heterogeneity with respect to vaccination status. The majority of citizens are vaccinated and strongly support limitations on freedoms in response to extreme conditions–especially, when they vaccinated themselves are exempted from these limitations. The unvaccinated minority prefers no restrictions on freedoms regardless of the severity of the pandemic. These policy packages also matter for reported trust in government, in opposite ways for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens.
@article{vaccines_pa_2023, author = {Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Kl{\"u}ver, Heike and Giesecke, Johannes}, title = {Trading Liberties: Estimating COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data}, journal = {Political Analysis}, year = {2023}, number = {2=Nr. 32}, pages = {285-293}, pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {health, experimental, methods}, proj.1 = {vaccines} } - NA 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnoutMinali Aggarwal, Jennifer Allen, Alexander Coppock, and 7 more authorsNature Human Behaviour, 2023
We present the results of a large, US$8.9 million campaign-wide field experiment, conducted among 2 million moderate- and low-information persuadable voters in five battleground states during the 2020 US presidential election. Treatment group participants were exposed to an 8-month-long advertising programme delivered via social media, designed to persuade people to vote against Donald Trump and for Joe Biden. We found no evidence that the programme increased or decreased turnout on average. We found evidence of differential turnout effects by modelled level of Trump support: the campaign increased voting among Biden leaners by 0.4 percentage points (s.e. = 0.2 pp) and decreased voting among Trump leaners by 0.3 percentage points (s.e. = 0.3 pp) for a difference in conditional average treatment effects of 0.7 points (t1,035,571 = -2.09; P = 0.036; [Formula: see text] points; 95% confidence interval = -0.014 to 0). An important but exploratory finding is that the strongest differential effects appear in early voting data, which may inform future work on early campaigning in a post-COVID electoral environment. Our results indicate that differential mobilization effects of even large digital advertising campaigns in presidential elections are likely to be modest.
@article{zhang_2023, author = {Aggarwal, Minali and Allen, Jennifer and Coppock, Alexander and Frankowski, Dan and Messing, Solomon and Zhang, Kelly and Barnes, James and Beasley, Andrew and Hantman, Harry and Zheng, Sylvan}, title = {A 2 million-person, campaign-wide field experiment shows how digital advertising affects voter turnout}, journal = {Nature Human Behaviour}, year = {2023}, number = {3}, pages = {332-341}, volume = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {covid} }
2022
- ChapterPeacekeeping and the geographic diffusion and containment of conflict2022
Mission-level data strongly suggests that peacekeeping operations offer a path toward conflict reduction. Recently available spatially disaggregated intra-mission data tells a more complex story. Peacekeepers are deployed, within missions, to where violence strikes, and they can prevent bloodshed, but the evidence for the latter is relatively brittle and contingent. This chapter suggests that these findings at different levels of aggregation need not be contradictory, but that they constitute a puzzle that calls for continued efforts to improve and expand access to intra-mission data and a new evaluative approach that investigates a variety of adjustable mission components. I discuss the particular relevance of high-resolution geographic data for analyses of peacekeeping, describe laudable recent data collection efforts in this area, summarize their key findings and limitations, and outline a research frontier as it emerges from these datasets.
@inbook{beber_2022, author = {Beber, Bernd}, title = {Peacekeeping and the geographic diffusion and containment of conflict}, year = {2022}, pages = {196-209}, publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, booktitle = {Handbook on Peacekeeping and International Relations}, editor = {Dorussen, Han}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839109935.00025}, status = {peer} } - Das globale Impfversagen: Die Frage des Patentschutzes muss neu diskutiert werdenWZB-Mitteilungen, 2022
Die Ungleichheit beim weltweiten Zugang zu Impfstoffen gegen Covid-19 ist eklatant. Dabei zeigen Studien aus dem WZB: Die Akzeptanz von Impfungen ist in Ländern mit niedrigem Einkommen hoch, und die Deutschen befürworten mehr Impfsolidarität, auch wenn das mit Kosten für Deutschland verbunden wäre. Es ist an der Zeit, dass Deutschland seinen Widerstand gegen die befristete Freigabe der Patente für Corona-Impfstoffe Überdenkt.
@article{humphreys_2022, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Das globale Impfversagen: Die Frage des Patentschutzes muss neu diskutiert werden}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2022}, number = {2=Nr. 175}, pages = {30-33}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, keywords = {vertical linkages} } - Political violence and endogenous growthWorld Development, 2022
I provide an illustration of a dynamic version of Robert Bates’ conjecture that technologies of coercion can be critical to generate prosperity. The model provides support for the conjecture under specified conditions, generates implications for growth paths, including transitions away from coercive strategies, and has implications for the evolution of inequality.
@article{humphreys_growth_2022, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Political violence and endogenous growth}, journal = {World Development}, year = {2022}, pages = {105993}, volume = {159}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, keywords = {theory, violence, development} } - From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the PhilippinesAmerican Political Science Review, 2022
How does the recognition of collective self-governance rights for indigenous communities affect national unity and state consolidation? In recent decades, many states have recognized such rights, devolving de jure control over land and local governance to indigenous institutions. Prominent perspectives in the state-building literature suggest that these policies are likely to threaten state consolidation by strengthening nonstate authorities at the expense of state authority and subnational identities at the expense of a national identity. Yet few studies have tested whether these policies have the consequences their critics claim. I address this gap, leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the granting of communal land titles to indigenous communities in the Philippines. Using difference-in-differences and panel designs, I find that titling increases both indigenous self-identification and compliance with the state. Results from an original survey experiment suggest that recognizing collective self-governance rights increases identification with the nation.
@article{mcmurry_apsr_2022, author = {McMurry, Nina}, title = {From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2022}, number = {2}, pages = {547--563}, volume = {116}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {integration}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {integration} } - The Myth of the Misinformed Migrant? Survey Insights from Nigeria’s Irregular Migration Epicenter2022
Policy projections and recent research suggest that large numbers of irregular migrants from sub-Saharan Africa will continue to attempt to make their way to Europe over the next few decades. In response, European countries have made and continue to make significant investments in information campaigns designed to discourage irregular African migration. Despite the ubiquity of these campaigns, we know relatively little about potential migrants’ prior knowledge and beliefs. To what extent are potential migrants actually misinformed about the migration journey and destination countries? We bring representative survey data collected in Benin City, Nigeria - a center of irregular migration - to bear on this question. Three key insights emerge. First, potential migrants are better informed about destination contexts than is commonly assumed, and if anything appear to underestimate the economic benefits of life in Europe. Second, they are relatively less well informed about specific risks and other features of the irregular migration journey. Third, we find evidence of optimism bias. Respondents are generally hopeful when asked about Nigerian irregular migrants’ prospects of being able to reach and stay in Europe, but they are especially optimistic when asked about their own chances. Taken together, these findings suggest that existing migration-related information campaigns, and with them a central component of migration policies in countries across the Global North, rest on shaky foundations. Most problematically, our study suggests that campaigns risk becoming misinformation campaigns, particularly when they suggest to potential migrants that they are overestimating the benefits of living in Europe.
@unpublished{scacco_beber_2022, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Bernd}, title = {The Myth of the Misinformed Migrant? Survey Insights from Nigeria's Irregular Migration Epicenter}, year = {2022}, doi = {doi:10.4419/96973121}, status = {WP}, proj = {irr}, keywords = {exclusion}, proj.1 = {irr} } - PLOSPublic support for global vaccine sharing in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from GermanyFerdinand Geissler, Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, and 1 more authorPLOS ONE, 2022
By September 2021 an estimated 32% of the global population was fully vaccinated for COVID-19 but the global distribution of vaccines was extremely unequal, with 72% or more vaccinated in the ten countries with the highest vaccination rates and less than 2% in the ten countries with the lowest vaccination rates. Given that governments need to secure public support for investments in global vaccine sharing, it is important to understand the levels and drivers of public support for international vaccine solidarity. Using a factorial experiment administered to more than 10,000 online survey respondents in Germany in 2021, we demonstrate that the majority of German citizens are against global inequalities in vaccine distribution. Respondents are supportive of substantive funding amounts, on the order of the most generous contributions provided to date, though still below amounts that are likely needed for a successful global campaign. Public preferences appear largely to be driven by intrinsic concern for the welfare of global populations though are in part explained by material considerationsâparticularly risks of continued health threats from a failure to vaccinate globally. Strategic considerations are of more limited importance in shaping public opinion; in particular we see no evidence for free riding on contributions by other states. Finally, drawing on an additional survey experiment, we show that there is scope to use information campaigns highlighting international health externalities to augment public support for global campaigns.
@article{vaccines_plos_2022, author = {Geissler, Ferdinand and Hartmann, Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Giesecke, Heike Kl{\"u}verand Johannes}, title = {Public support for global vaccine sharing in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Germany}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, year = {2022}, number = {12}, pages = {e0278337}, volume = {17}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, pap = {https://osf.io/4vgf6/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {development, health, experimental}, proj.1 = {vaccines} }
2021
- SciAdvFalling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countriesDennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Shana S. Warren, and 23 more authorsScience advances, 2021
Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.
@article{egger_2021, author = {Egger, Dennis and Miguel, Edward and Warren, Shana S. and Shenoy, Ashish and Collins, Elliott and Karlan, Dean and Parkerson, Doug and Mobarak, A. Mushfiq and Fink, G{\"u}nther and Udry, Christopher and Walker, Michael and Haushofer, Johannes and Larreboure, Magdalena and Athey, Susan and Lopez-Pena, Paula and Benhachmi, Salim and Humphreys, Macartan and Lowe, Layna and Meriggi, Niccoló F. and Wabwire, Andrew and Davis, C. Austin and Pape, Utz Johann and Graff, Tilman and Voors, Maarten and Nekesa, Carolyn and Vernot, Corey}, title = {Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries}, journal = {Science advances}, year = {2021}, number = {6}, pages = {eabe0997}, volume = {7}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe0997}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} } - Weniger Stimmen für die VolksparteiHanno Hilbig, Fabio Ellger, Sascha Riaz, and 1 more authorWZB-Mitteilungen, 2021
Der Rückgang des Lokaljournalismus ist ein entscheidender Erklärungsfaktor für die zunehmende Polarisierung der Wählerschaft. In ihrer statistischen Analyse stützen sich die Autoren auf Daten zur Verbreitung aller Lokalzeitungen in Deutschland über einen Zeitraum von mehr als 30 Jahren. Sie zeigen, dass die etablierten Volksparteien Stimmen verlieren, nachdem Lokalausgaben eingestellt werden. In einem zweiten Schritt weisen sie auf Basis von Daten zur Mediennutzung nach, dass Wähler:innen dazu tendieren, Lokalzeitungen nach deren Verschwinden vom Medienmarkt durch nationale Medien zu ersetzen. Dies zeigt, dass die Nationalisierung des Politikdiskurses der entscheidende Wirkmechanismus ist.
@article{hilbig_2021, author = {Hilbig, Hanno and Ellger, Fabio and Riaz, Sascha and Tillmann, Philipp}, title = {Weniger Stimmen für die Volkspartei}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2021}, number = {2=Nr. 172}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion} } - BrookingsBuilding robust and ethical vaccination verification systemsBaobao Zhang, Laurin Weissinger, Johannes Himmelreich, and 3 more authorsBrookings TechStream, 2021
As countries begin to vaccinate their populations against COVID-19, creating systems to verify vaccine records will be vital to reopening businesses, educational institutions, and travel. We consider the challenges of building vaccine record verification (VRV) systems that involve data sharing by health care providers, methods for verifying vaccine records, and regulation of how entities (e.g., workplaces, schools, businesses, and airlines) may request proof of vaccination. In particular, we focus on the opportunities and risks associated with digital vaccine passport apps. We propose three ethical principles to guide the building of VRV systems: 1) aligning systems with vaccine prioritization, 2) upholding fairness and equity, and 3) building trustworthy technology that protects the public’s health data.
@article{mcmurry_brookings_2021, author = {Zhang, Baobao and Weissinger, Laurin and Himmelreich, Johannes and McMurry, Nina and Li, Tiffany C and Kreps, Sarah E}, title = {Building robust and ethical vaccination verification systems}, journal = {Brookings TechStream}, year = {2021}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health}, proj.1 = {covid} } - SCIDWhen Do Strong Parties ’Throw the Bums Out’? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate NominationsEvan Lieberman, Philip Martin, and Nina McMurryStudies in Comparative International Development, 2021
Existing accounts of centralized candidate selection argue that party elites tend to ignore constituent preferences in favor of internal party concerns, leading to accountability deficits. Yet this claim has been largely assumed rather than demonstrated. We provide the first detailed empirical analysis of the relationship between constituent opinion and candidate nominations in the absence of party primaries. We study contemporary South Africa, where conventional wisdom suggests that parties select candidates primarily on the basis of party loyalty. Analyzing more than 8000 local government councillor careers linked with public opinion data, we find that citizen approval predicts incumbent renomination and promotion in minimally competitive constituencies, and that this relationship becomes more pronounced with increasing levels of competition. By contrast, improvements in service provision do not predict career advancement. Under threat of electoral losses, South Africa’s centralized parties strategically remove unpopular incumbents to demonstrate responsiveness to constituent views. However, party-led accountability may not improve development.
@article{mcmurry_scid_2021, author = {Lieberman, Evan and Martin, Philip and McMurry, Nina}, title = {When Do Strong Parties 'Throw the Bums Out'? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate Nominations}, journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, year = {2021}, pages = {316--342}, volume = {56}, publisher = {Springer}, status = {peer}, proj = {account}, keywords = {vertical linkages} } - Identity in Partition: Evidence from a Panel Survey in SudanAlexandra Scacco, Nermd Beber, and Philip Roessler2021
How are social identities affected by significant political change, and to what extent do migrants adopt linguistic, religious, regional, or tribal identity markers prevalent in their host communities? We investigate these questions in the context of Sudans partition, which led to the creation of South Sudan in July 2011. Partition entailed both the relocation of a large number of Southerners to South Sudan and a sharp deterioration in the treatment of minorities, including Southerners, remaining in northern Sudan. The paper presents data from a panel survey of 1,380 respondents conductedin pre- and post-partition Sudan and South Sudan in 2010 and 2011, complemented by in-depth qualitative interviews conducted in 2012. This is to our knowledge the only systematic data collected on Sudanese attitudes and self-identification at the time of partition and the first time such a panel has been constructed during a countrys partition. We present statistical evidence to show that subjects self-identifications are surprisingly malleable and responsive to context. This affects both the activation and ranking of preexisting identity components (e.g. whether subjects prioritize their tribal or national identities) and the adoption of entirely new characteristics (e.g. Christians self-identifying as Muslims). We show that some identity markers (such as language) are more malleable than others (such as religion), but overall subjects are willing to adapt and redefine themselves in the pursuit of security and well-being. This is true for both Southerners and other peripheral minorities trying to pass as members of dominant groups in Sudan as well as relocated Southerners trying to settle in South Sudan. Contrary to fears expressed by members of dominant groups, these vulnerable individuals do not refuse to integrate, but actively seek to adopt dominant identity patterns.
@unpublished{scacco_identity_sudan_2021, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Nermd and Roessler, Philip}, title = {Identity in Partition: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Sudan}, year = {2021}, status = {WP}, proj = {sudan}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {sudan} } - Coping with Partition: Wealth, Security, and Migration in Post-Separation SudanAlexandra Scacco, Bernd Beber, and Philip Roessler2021
In January 2011, the people of Southern Sudan voted to secede from Sudan, and the country divided into two states six months later. Given this momentous shift in Sudans political boundaries, this paper asks how Southerners located in northern Sudan decided to structure their lives in the shadow of partition. We ask under what conditions Southerners living in the North at the time of partition were more or less likely to migrate to newly created South Sudan. We find that both the poorest and the wealthiest Southerners are most likely to relocate swiftly, while middle income households depend more heavily on economic opportunities absent in the South and are therefore more likely to resist migration, in spite of the severe security risks associated with remaining in the North. As such, migration decisions in the shadow of Sudans partition reflect a stark trade-off between security and prosperity for a highly vulnerable minority group. The paper analyzes data from a unique, original panel survey of 1380 respondents drawn from pre- and post-referendum Khartoum and post-referendum South Sudan, including 204 Southerners. The first round of the survey was implemented by the authors in the fall of 2010, and the second round was completed in the fall of 2011.
@unpublished{scacco_sudan_2021, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Beber, Bernd and Roessler, Philip}, title = {Coping with Partition: Wealth, Security, and Migration in Post-Separation Sudan}, year = {2021}, status = {WP}, proj = {sudan}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {sudan} } - NatMedCOVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income CountriesJulio S. Solís Arce, Shana S. Warren, Niccolò F. Meriggi, and 71 more authorsNature Medicine, 2021
Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs.
@article{solis_2021, author = {Solís Arce, Julio S. and Warren, Shana S. and Meriggi, Niccolò F. and Scacco, Alexandra and McMurry, Nina and Voors, Maarten and Syunyaev, Georgiy and Malik, Amyn Abdul and Aboutajdine, Samya and Adeojo, Opeyemi and Anigo, Deborah and Armand, Alex and Asad, Saher and Atyera, Martin and Augsburg, Britta and Awasthi, Manisha and Ayesiga, Gloria Eden and Bancalari, Antonella and Nyqvist, Martina Björkman and Borisova, Ekaterina and Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and García, Magarita Rosa Cabra and Cheema, Ali and Collins, Elliott and Cuccaro, Filippo and Farooqi, Ahsan Zia and Fatima, Tatheer and Fracchia, Mattia and Soria, Mery Len Galindo and Guariso, Andrea and Hasanain, Ali and Jaramillo, Sofía and Kallon, Sellu and Kamwesigye, Anthony and Kharel, Arjun and Kreps, Sarah and Levine, Madison and Littman, Rebecca and Malik, Mohammad and Manirabaruta, Gisele and Mfura, Jean Léodomir Habarimana and Momoh, Fatoma and Mucauque, Alberto and Mussa, Imamo and Nsabimana, Jean Aime and Obara, Isaac and Otálora, María Juliana and Ouédraogo, Béchir Wendemi and Pare, Touba Bakary and Platas, Melina R. and Polanco, Laura and Qureshi, Javaeria Ashraf and Raheem, Mariam and Ramakrishna, Vasudha and Rendrá, Ismail and Shah, Taimur and Shaked, Sarene Eyla and Shapiro, Jacob N. and Svensson, Jakob and Tariq, Ahsan and Tchibozo, Achille Mignondo and Tiwana, Hamid Ali and Trivedi, Bhartendu and Vernot, Corey and Vicente, Pedro C. and Weissinger, Laurin B. and Zafar, Basit and Zhang, Baobao and Karlan, Dean and Callen, Michael and Teachout, Matthieu and Humphreys, Macartan and Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq and Omer, Saad B.}, title = {COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries}, journal = {Nature Medicine}, year = {2021}, number = {8}, pages = {1385--1394}, volume = {27}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01454-y}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01454-y}, replication = {https://github.com/wzb-ipi/covid_vaccines_nmed}, media = {https://nature.altmetric.com/details/109629548}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} } - PNASIncentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptakeHeike Klüverand Felix Hartmann, Macartan Humphreys, Ferdinand Geissler, and 1 more authorProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021
Recent evidence suggests that vaccination hesitancy is too high in many countries to sustainably contain COVID-19. Using a factorial survey experiment administered to 20,500 online respondents in Germany, we assess the effectiveness of three strategies to increase vaccine uptake, namely, providing freedoms, financial remuneration, and vaccination at local doctors. Our results suggest that all three strategies can increase vaccination uptake on the order of two to three percentage points (PP) overall and five PP among the undecided. The combined effects could be as high as 13 PP for this group. The returns from different strategies vary across age groups, however, with older cohorts more responsive to local access and younger cohorts most responsive to enhanced freedoms for vaccinated citizens.
@article{vaccines_pnas_2021, author = {Hartmann, Heike Kl{\"u}verand Felix and Humphreys, Macartan and Geissler, Ferdinand and Giesecke, Johannes}, title = {Incentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptake}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year = {2021}, number = {36}, pages = {e2109543118}, volume = {118}, publisher = {National Acad Sciences}, pap = {https://osf.io/h8rkb/}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109543118}, replication = {https://wzb-ipi.github.io/covid_hesitancy_2021/}, status = {peer}, proj = {vaccines}, keywords = {experimental, health}, proj.1 = {vaccines} } - ESElections and selfishnessKjetil Bjorvatn, Simon Galle, Lars Ivar Oppedal Berge, and 4 more authorsElectoral Studies, 2021
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs.
@article{zhang_2021, author = {Bjorvatn, Kjetil and Galle, Simon and Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal and Miguel, Edward and Posner, Daniel N and Tungodden, Bertil and Zhang, Kelly}, title = {Elections and selfishness}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, year = {2021}, pages = {102267}, volume = {69}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, proj = {health}, keywords = {horizontal contestations}, proj.1 = {health} }
2020
- The aggregation challengeWorld Development, 2020
Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer have had an enormous impact on scholarship on the political economy of development. But as RCTs have become more central in this field, political scientists have struggled to draw implications from proliferating micro-level studies for longstanding macro level problems. We describe these challenges and point to recent innovations to help address them.
@article{aggregation_2020, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Scacco, Alexandra}, title = {The aggregation challenge}, journal = {World Development}, year = {2020}, pages = {104806}, volume = {127}, publisher = {Elsevier}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {methods, development}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - Trotz Risiken und Nebenwirkungen. Die Chancen der Bürgerbeteiligung in der EntwicklungspolitikConstantin Manuel Bosancianu, Macartan Humphreys, and Ana Garcia-HernandezWZB-Mitteilungen, 2020
Bürgerbeteiligungsverfahren bilden die Präferenzen der Bevölkerung mitunter nur unzureichend ab. Dies kann am ungleichen Engagement der Beteiligten in der Entscheidungsfindung liegen oder daran, dass die Verfahrensverantwortlichen den Prozess beeinflussen. Bei einem Projekt in Kampala (Uganda) wurde die Wirksamkeit solcher Verfahren untersucht. Es finden sich zwar Belege für ungleiche Beteiligung und den Einfluss der Eliten auf die Ergebnisse, doch dies führt nicht zu Ungleichheiten in Bezug darauf, wessen Ansichten sich in den Ergebnissen der Beratungen widerspiegeln. Beteiligungsverfahren können unter den richtigen Bedingungen ein wertvolles Instrument zur Kanalisierung von Bürgerinteressen sein.
@article{bosancianu_2020, author = {Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Humphreys, Macartan and Garcia-Hernandez, Ana}, title = {Trotz Risiken und Nebenwirkungen. Die Chancen der Bürgerbeteiligung in der Entwicklungspolitik}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2020}, number = {2=Nr. 169}, pages = {47-40}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {kcca}, keywords = {vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {kcca} } - Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality2020
What political and social features of states help explain the distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We survey existing works on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political priorities, and (4) social structures to identify national-level political and social characteristics that may help explain variation in the ability of societies to limit Covid-19 mortality. Accounting for a simple set of Lasso-chosen controls, we find that measures of interpersonal and institutional trust are persistently associated with reported Covid-19 deaths in theory-consistent directions. Beyond this, however, patterns are poorly predicted by existing theories, and by arguments in the popular press focused on populist governments, women-led governments, and pandemic preparedness. Expert predictions of mortality patterns associated with state capacity, democracy, and inequality, do no better than chance. Overall, our analysis highlights the challenges our discipline’s theories face in accounting for political responses to unanticipated, society-wide crises.
@unpublished{correlates_202, author = {Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel and Dionne, Kim Yi and Hilbig, Hanno and Humphreys, Macartan and Sampada, KC and Lieber, Nils and Scacco, Alexandra Lawrence}, title = {Political and social correlates of covid-19 mortality}, year = {2020}, publisher = {SocArXiv}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ub3zd}, url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ub3zd/}, status = {peer}, proj = {covid}, keywords = {health, development}, proj.1 = {covid} } - Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from UgandaGuy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and Gabriella Sacramone-LutzThe Journal of Politics, 2020
This study integrates three related field experiments to learn about how information communications technology (ICT) innovations can affect who communicates with politicians. We implemented a nationwide experiment in Uganda following a smaller-scale framed field experiment that suggested that ICTs can lead to significant ’flattening’: marginalized populations used short message service (SMS) based communication at relatively higher rates compared to existing political communication channels. We find no evidence for these effects in the national experiment. Instead, participation rates are extremely low, and marginalized populations engage at especially low rates. We examine possible reasons for these differences between the more controlled and the scaled-up experiments. The evidence suggests that even when citizens have issues they want to raise, technological fixes to communication deficits can be easily undercut by structural weaknesses in political systems.
@article{grossman_202, author = {Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Sacramone-Lutz, Gabriella}, title = {Information technology and political engagement: Mixed evidence from Uganda}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {1321--1336}, volume = {82}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/708339}, status = {peer}, proj = {sms}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {sms} } - Does public opinion affect political speech?Anselm Hager, and Hanno HilbigAmerican Journal of Political Science, 2020
Does public opinion affect political speech? Of particular interest is whether public opinion affects (i) what topics politicians address and (ii) what positions they endorse. We present evidence from Germany where the government was recently forced to declassify its public opinion research, allowing us to link the content of the research to subsequent speeches. Our causal identification strategy exploits the exogenous timing of the research’s dissemination to cabinet members within a window of a few days. We find that exposure to public opinion research leads politicians to markedly change their speech. First, we show that linguistic similarity between political speech and public opinion research increases significantly after reports are passed on to the cabinet, suggesting that politicians change the topics they address. Second, we demonstrate that exposure to public opinion research alters politicians’ substantive positions in the direction of majority opinion.
@article{hagar_hilbig_2020, author = {Hager, Anselm and Hilbig, Hanno}, title = {Does public opinion affect political speech?}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, year = {2020}, number = {4}, pages = {921--937}, volume = {64}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, status = {peer}, keywords = {vertical linkages, horizontal contestation} } - Nicht im selben Boot: Jedes Land macht seine eigenen Erfahrungen mit Corona - auch Sierra LeoneMacartan Humphreys, and Julio S. Solis ArceWZB-Mitteilungen, 2020
Sierra Leone hat schnell umfangreiche Eindämmungsmaßnahmen gegen die Verbreitung des Coronavirus eingeführt - mit hohen Ökonomischen und sozialen Folgekosten. Die Möglichkeiten der Politik, auf die Wirtschaftskrise zu reagieren, sind sehr begrenzt. Entscheidungen der Regierung greifen oft auf Erfahrungen mit der Ebola-Epidemie zurück, aber es gibt kaum genaue Modelle, die Kosten und Nutzen aggressiver Interventionen durchrechnen würden. Falls Sierra Leone eine zweite Corona- Welle erlebt, müssen Einsichten von Gesundheits- und Sozialwissenschaftlern kombiniert werden.
@article{humphreys_soli_2020, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Arce, Julio S. Solis}, title = {Nicht im selben Boot: Jedes Land macht seine eigenen Erfahrungen mit Corona - auch Sierra Leone}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2020}, number = {2=Nr.169}, pages = {25-28}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {covid} } - Von Ebola zu Covid-19 und zurük: Was die Demokratische Republik Kongo aus früheren Epidemien gelernt hatJanosch KullenbergWZB-Mitteilungen, 2020
Durch ihre Erfahrungen mit Ebola bietet die Demokratische Republik Kongo wichtige Lehren für Covid-19: Ein bevölkerungsnaher Ansatz und empathische Kommunikation sind zentral, um das Vertrauen und die Kooperation der Bevölkerung zu gewinnen und somit die Krankheit effektiv zu bekämpfen. Gleichzeitig könnten die deutschen Erfahrungen mit dem Coronavirus über die letzten Monate zu neuen und effektiveren Ansätzen in der Unterstützung von Seuchenbekämpfung in Afrika führen.
@article{kullenberg_2020, author = {Kullenberg, Janosch}, title = {Von Ebola zu Covid-19 und zurük: Was die Demokratische Republik Kongo aus früheren Epidemien gelernt hat}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2020}, number = {2=Nr. 169}, pages = {29-32}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion} } - ChapterField experiments, theory, and external validitySAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations, 2020
Critics of field experiments lament a turn away from theory and criticize findings for weak external validity. In this chapter, we outline strategies to address these challenges. Highlighting the connection between these twin critiques, we discuss how structural approaches can both help design experiments that maximize the researcher’s ability to learn about theories and enable researchers to judge to what extent the results of one experiment can travel to other settings. We illustrate with a simulated analysis of a bargaining problem to show how theory can help make external claims with respect to both populations and treatments and how combining random assignment and theory can both sharpen learning and alert researchers to over-dependence on theory.
@article{wilke_2020, author = {Wilke, Anna and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Field experiments, theory, and external validity}, journal = {SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations}, year = {2020}, pages = {1007--35}, publisher = {SAGE London}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {theory, methods}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - Verhaltensforschung geht ins Feld: Ein Kurs in Kenia bringt den Globalen Süden und den Norden ins GesprächAlisa Zomer, Kelly Zhang, and Chaning JangWZB-Mitteilungen, 2020
Anfang 2020 versammelten das Busara Center for Behavioral Economics in Nairobi und das MIT Governance Lab 12 Forschende von amerikanischen und ostafrikanischen Universitäten für einen innovativen verhaltenswissenschaftlichen Kurs, der die Konzeption und Durchführung von Laborexperimenten im Querschnitt von Wirtschaft, Politikwissenschaft und Psychologie zum Inhalt hatte. Die Initiative, die während Kelly Zhangs Gastaufenthalt in der WZB-Abteilung Institutionen und politische Ungleichheit entstand, will Forschungsfragen im lokalen kenianischen Kontext verankern und den aktiven Dialog zwischen Wissenschaft ler:innen des globalen Nordens und des globalen Südens fördern.
@article{zhang_2020, author = {Zomer, Alisa and Zhang, Kelly and Jang, Chaning}, title = {Verhaltensforschung geht ins Feld: Ein Kurs in Kenia bringt den Globalen Süden und den Norden ins Gespräch}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2020}, number = {2=Nr. 169}, pages = {39-41}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion} }
2019
- ISQThe Promise and Peril of Peacekeeping EconomiesBernd Beber, Michael J Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and 1 more authorInternational Studies Quarterly, 2019
Contemporary United Nations (UN) peacekeeping deployments commonly pursue both security and economic objectives, but the existing scholarly literature contains hardly any systematic assessments of peacekeeping missions economic effects. We address this issue in two ways. First, we use cross-country data to show that UN peacekeeping missions are large-scale economic interventions. They stimulate demand in depressed economic environments; we find significantly higher economic growth in the presence of peacekeeping deployments than in comparable cases without them. However, we estimate that economic growth rapidly declines when missions end, which suggests that they do not necessarily promote stable economic development. Second, we provide evidence in this vein by turning to microlevel survey data that we collected in Monrovia, where the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) had a large presence from 2003 onward. Our data suggests that UNMIL’s spending created demand for low-skill employment in the service sector, largely without facilitating skill transfers or loosening credit constraints for business owners. This illustrates the problem of peacekeeping economies suggested by our cross-country analysis: peacekeeping missions help create an economic boom fueled by demand in nontraded products, particularly low-skill services, which may not be robust to the mission’s withdrawal.
@article{beber_2019, author = {Beber, Bernd and Gilligan, Michael J and Guardado, Jenny and Karim, Sabrina}, title = {The Promise and Peril of Peacekeeping Economies}, journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, year = {2019}, number = {2}, pages = {364-379}, volume = {63}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz012}, status = {peer} } - ISQThe promise and peril of peacekeeping economiesBernd Beber, Michael J Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and 1 more authorInternational Studies Quarterly, 2019
Contemporary United Nations (UN) peacekeeping deployments commonly pursue both security and economic objectives, but the existing scholarly literature contains hardly any systematic assessments of peacekeeping missions’ economic effects. We address this issue in two ways. First, we use cross-country data to show that UN peacekeeping missions are large-scale economic interventions. They stimulate demand in depressed economic environments; we find significantly higher economic growth in the presence of peacekeeping deployments than in comparable cases without them. However, we estimate that economic growth rapidly declines when missions end, which suggests that they do not necessarily promote stable economic development. Second, we provide evidence in this vein by turning to microlevel survey data that we collected in Monrovia, where the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) had a large presence from 2003 onward. Our data suggests that UNMIL’s spending created demand for low-skill employment in the service sector, largely without facilitating skill transfers or loosening credit constraints for business owners. This illustrates the problem of ’peacekeeping economies’ suggested by our cross-country analysis: peacekeeping missions help create an economic boom fueled by demand in nontraded products, particularly low-skill services, which may not be robust to the mission’s withdrawal.
@article{beber_gilligan_2019, author = {Beber, Bernd and Gilligan, Michael J and Guardado, Jenny and Karim, Sabrina}, title = {The promise and peril of peacekeeping economies}, journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, year = {2019}, number = {2}, pages = {364--379}, volume = {63}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, status = {peer}, keywords = {political violence} } - Declaring and diagnosing research designsGraeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, and 1 more authorAmerican Political Science Review, 2019
Researchers need to select high-quality research designs and communicate those designs clearly to readers. Both tasks are difficult. We provide a framework for formally declaring the analytically relevant features of a research design in a demonstrably complete manner, with applications to qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods research. The approach to design declaration we describe requires defining a model of the world (M), an inquiry (I), a data strategy (D), and an answer strategy (A). Declaration of these features in code provides sufficient information for researchers and readers to use Monte Carlo techniques to diagnose properties such as power, bias, accuracy of qualitative causal inferences, and other diagnosands. Ex ante declarations can be used to improve designs and facilitate preregistration, analysis, and reconciliation of intended and actual analyses. Ex post declarations are useful for describing, sharing, reanalyzing, and critiquing existing designs. We provide open-source software, DeclareDesign, to implement the proposed approach.
@article{dd_2019, author = {Blair, Graeme and Cooper, Jasper and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Declaring and diagnosing research designs}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2019}, number = {3}, pages = {838--859}, volume = {113}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000194}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/declaring-and-diagnosing-research-designs/3CB0C0BB0810AEF8FF65446B3E2E4926}, status = {peer}, proj = {design}, keywords = {methods}, proj.1 = {design} } - Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York CityAlbert H Fang, Andrew M Guess, and Macartan HumphreysThe Journal of Politics, 2019
Racial discrimination persists despite established antidiscrimination laws. A common government strategy to deter discrimination is to publicize the law and communicate potential penalties for violations. We study this strategy by coupling an audit experiment with a randomized intervention involving nearly 700 landlords in New York City and report the first causal estimates of the effect on rental discrimination against blacks and Hispanics of a targeted government messaging campaign. We uncover discrimination levels higher than prior estimates indicate, especially against Hispanics, who are approximately 6 percentage points less likely to receive callbacks and offers than whites. We find suggestive evidence that government messaging can reduce discrimination against Hispanics but not against blacks. The findings confirm discrimination’s persistence and suggest that government messaging can address it in some settings, but more work is needed to understand the conditions under which such appeals are most effective.
@article{fang_2019, author = {Fang, Albert H and Guess, Andrew M and Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Can the government deter discrimination? Evidence from a randomized intervention in New York City}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, year = {2019}, number = {1}, pages = {127--141}, volume = {81}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/700107}, url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/700107}, status = {peer}, proj = {housing}, keywords = {experimental, identity politics, horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {housing} } - SciAdvVoter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trialsThad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 8 more authorsScience advances, 2019
Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives’ performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the reliability of published research. We implemented a new approach to cumulative learning, coordinating the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommon for multisite trials in the social sciences, we jointly preregistered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, nonpartisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, although exploratory and subgroup analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.
@article{metaketa_article_2019, author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth and Adida, Claire L and Arias, Eric and Bicalho, Clara and Boas, Taylor C and {others}}, title = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials}, journal = {Science advances}, year = {2019}, number = {7}, pages = {eaaw2612}, volume = {5}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}, url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}, status = {peer}, proj = {account}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - CUPInformation, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa IThad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, and 3 more authors2019
Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the first project of the Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantive question and at the same time introduce a new model for cumulative learning that increases coordination among otherwise independent researcher teams. It presents the overall results (using meta-analysis) from six independently conducted but coordinated field experimental studies, the results from each individual study, and the findings from a related evaluation of whether practitioners utilize this information as expected. It also discusses lessons learned from EGAP’s efforts to coordinate field experiments, increase replication of theoretically important studies across contexts, and increase the external validity of field experimental research.
@book{metaketa_book_2019, author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth}, title = {Information, accountability, and cumulative learning: Lessons from Metaketa I}, year = {2019}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {aggregation}, keywords = {experimental, development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {aggregation} } - JDEExporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern CongoMacartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez Sierra, and Peter Van der WindtJournal of Development Economics, 2019
We study a randomized Community Driven Reconstruction (CDR) intervention that provided two years of exposure to democratic practices in 1250 villages in eastern Congo. To assess its impact, we examine behavior in a village-level unconditional cash transfer project that distributed $1000 to 457 treatment and control villages. The unconditonal cash transfer provides opportunities to assess whetherpublic funds get captured, what governance practices are employed by villagers and village elites and whether prior exposure to the CDR intervention alters these behaviors. We find no evidence for such effects. The results cast doubt on current attempts to export democratic practices to local communities.
@article{tuungane_2019, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez and {Van der Windt}, Peter}, title = {Exporting democratic practices: Evidence from a village governance intervention in Eastern Congo}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2019}, pages = {279--301}, volume = {140}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.03.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818305078}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {experimental, development, horizontal contestation, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} } - CPSCitizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?Comparative Political Studies, 2019
Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual’s support for another. We show that this quantity–a type of elasticity–cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model’s outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government.
@article{windt_2019, author = {{Van der Windt}, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and Medina, Lily and Timmons, Jeffrey F and Voors, Maarten}, title = {Citizen attitudes toward traditional and state authorities: substitutes or complements?}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, year = {2019}, number = {12}, pages = {1810--1840}, volume = {52}, publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018806529}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414018806529?journalCode=cpsa}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {development, vertical linkages}, proj.1 = {cdd} }
2018
- OUPWhy do women co-operate more in women’s groups?James D Fearon, Macartan Humphreys, and othersTowards Gender Equity in Development, 2018
We examine a public goods game in 83 communities in northern Liberia. Women contributed substantially more to a small-scale development project when playing with other women than in mixed-gender groups, where they contributed at about the same levels as men. We try to explain this composition effect using a structural model, survey responses, and a second manipulation. Results suggest women in the all-women condition put more weight on co-operation regardless of value of public good, fear of discovery, or desire to match others’ behaviour. Game players may have stronger motivation to signal public-spiritedness when primed to consider themselves representatives of the women of the community.
@article{fearon_humphreys_2018, author = {Fearon, James D and Humphreys, Macartan and {others}}, title = {Why do women co-operate more in women's groups?}, journal = {Towards Gender Equity in Development}, year = {2018}, pages = {217}, publisher = {Oxford Scholarship Online}, url = {https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/190008}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {cdd} } - Der tote Winkel: Auch in der akademischen Praxis sind männliche Verhaltensmuster hartnäckigWZB-Mitteilungen, 2018
Dieser Artikel thematisiert das anhaltende Problem der Geschlechterdiskriminierung in den Politikwissenschaften, das häufig von männlichen Akademikern nicht wahrgenommen wird.
@article{humphreys_2018, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Der tote Winkel: Auch in der akademischen Praxis sind männliche Verhaltensmuster hartnäckig}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2018}, number = {2=Nr. 159}, pages = {62-63}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion} } - Die Quote allein reicht nicht immer: Ein Experiment in Kongo zeigt, wie steinig der Weg zur Gendergerechtigkeit istMacartan Humphreys, Peter Windt, and Raul Sanchez SierraWZB-Mitteilungen, 2018
Wirken Geschlechterquoten sich bei Entscheidungsprozessen auf lokaler Ebene positiv auf die Ergebnisse und auf die gesellschaftliche Machtposition von Frauen aus? Es gibt viele Belege für die These, dass Vorgaben für Interessensvertretungen die Position von Fraueninteressen langfristig stärken. Unsere Studie über eine breit angelegte experimentelle entwicklungspolitische Intervention zeigt allerdings: Punktuelle, kurz fristig angelegte Innovationen bei der Interessenswahrnehmung, wie sie in der Entwicklungsarbeit oft von externen Akteuren eingeführt werden, führen noch nicht zu einem wirklichen Wandel der Geschlechternormen.
@article{humphreys_windt_2018, author = {Humphreys, Macartan and van der Windt, Peter and de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez}, title = {Die Quote allein reicht nicht immer: Ein Experiment in Kongo zeigt, wie steinig der Weg zur Gendergerechtigkeit ist}, journal = {WZB-Mitteilungen}, year = {2018}, number = {2=Nr. 161}, publisher = {WZB}, status = {discussion}, proj = {cdd} } - Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in NigeriaAlexandra Scacco, and Shana S WarrenAmerican Political Science Review, 2018
Can positive social contact between members of antagonistic groups reduce prejudice and discrimination? Despite extensive research on social contact, observational studies are difficult to interpret because prejudiced people may select out of contact with out-group members. We overcome this problem by conducting an education-based, randomized field experiment – the Urban Youth Vocational Training program (UYVT) – with 849 randomly sampled Christian and Muslim young men in riot-prone Kaduna, Nigeria. After sixteen weeks of positive intergroup social contact, we find no changes in prejudice, but heterogeneous-class subjects discriminate significantly less against out-group members than subjects in homogeneous classes. We trace this finding to increased discrimination by homogeneous-class subjects compared to non-UYVT study participants, and we highlight potentially negative consequences of in-group social contact. By focusing on skill-building instead of peace messaging, our intervention minimizes reporting bias and offers strong experimental evidence that intergroup social contact can alter behavior in constructive ways, even amid violent conflict.
@article{scacco_2018, author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Warren, Shana S}, title = {Can social contact reduce prejudice and discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in Nigeria}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, year = {2018}, number = {3}, pages = {654--677}, volume = {112}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {socialcont}, keywords = {horizontal contestation}, proj.1 = {socialcont} } - JDEGender quotas in development programming: Null results from a field experiment in CongoPeter Van der Windt, Macartan Humphreys, and Raul Sanchez de la SierraJournal of Development Economics, 2018
We examine whether gender quotas introduced by development agencies empower women. As part of a development program, an international organization created community management committees in 661 villages to oversee village level program expenditures. In a randomly selected half of these villages the organization required the committees to have gender parity. Using data on project choice from all participating villages, data on decision making in a later development project (105 villages), and data on citizen attitudes (200 villages), we find no evidence that gender parity requirements empower women. We discuss potential reasons for the null result, including weakness of these social interventions in terms of the engagement they generate, their time horizon, and the weak delegation of responsibilities.
@article{windt_2018, author = {{Van der Windt}, Peter and Humphreys, Macartan and {de la Sierra}, Raul Sanchez}, title = {Gender quotas in development programming: Null results from a field experiment in Congo}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2018}, pages = {326--345}, volume = {133}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.02.006}, status = {peer}, proj = {cdd}, keywords = {development, experimental, identity politics}, proj.1 = {cdd} }
2017
- IJECommentary: Biases in the assessment of long-run effects of dewormingInternational Journal of Epidemiology, 2017
Jullien and colleagues provide a critique of three working papers on the long-run effects of deworming interventions. Despite being unpublished, these three papers have been prominent in the public debate in support of calls for such interventions over the past few years. What can we really infer from them?
@article{worms_2017, author = {Humphreys, Macartan}, title = {Commentary: Biases in the assessment of long-run effects of deworming}, journal = {International Journal of Epidemiology}, year = {2017}, number = {6}, pages = {2163--2165}, volume = {45}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, status = {peer}, proj = {methods}, keywords = {health}, proj.1 = {methods} }